Nifty Analysis For September 19

***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
3800 target also achieved today which I felt that would be difficult to achieve.
Another long lower shadow formed today which is bullish.
Double bottom formed at 3800 is also bullish.
Upside target of corrective upmove will be 4130, 4220.
Below 3800 downtrend will resume again.

***Derivatives (September 18)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 6 points and around 6 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.

-Nifty call option shed 3 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.83 from 0.82.

-Implied volatility has increased by 400-450 basis points(upto 45-53%%), which indicates high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 268 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 196 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1333 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 410 cr
***total fund flow – 459 cr today & nifty was down by 67 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 10087cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah

NO NEED FOR PANIC PLEASE

today nifty make bottom at 3799 against previous bottom of 3790 making a case for double bottom thus our markets now look safe for decent upside not only in short term but also in medium term.
today our markets open with gap which is third in a row which generally gets exhausted very fast.
in last 3 days our markets had formed long lower shadow which is very bullish in addition if close above 3900 today then today alos long lower shadow will be formed.
in addition dow jones also looks good on charts for short term.
nifty put call ratio was at 0.83 y'day that also favours that bottom is very near.
in a nutshell i feel that this is best time to invest in our markets right now.
for traders trading should be avoided in this volatile times.
in
-jignesh

follow up dow chart

Nifty Analysis For Sept 17

***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend.
Another long lower shadow formed today which is very bullish.
Above 4100 nifty can bounce back upto 4300.
Most probably nifty now will remain sideway in 3950-4300 range.

***Derivatives (September 16)
-Nifty (September) future discount converted to premium of 16 points and around 7 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.
-Nifty call option added 32 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.84.
-Implied volatility has decreased by 100-150(upto 40-45%%), which indicates stability in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 15)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 240 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 580 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market -629 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 122 cr
***total fund flow +313 cr today & still nifty was down by 155 points!!!!!!!!!.
*** So far net fund flow of – 7603 cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah

Nifty Outlook For Sept 16

P&F CHART SHOWS THAT OVERALL DOWNTREND TARGET WILL BE 3400 IN LONG TERM.

***Technicals
4200 broken today and nifty is now in downtrend.
Target of 3960 achieved today below it target will be at 3800 which is a difficult target to achieve in immediate short term.
Most probably nifty now will remain sideway in 3950-4300 range.

***Derivatives (September 15)
-Nifty (September) future premium converted to discount of 4 points and around 10 lakh shares were shed in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating long unwinding at higher levels.
-Nifty call option added 31 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 1 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.87.
-Implied volatility has increased by 650-700(upto 45-50%), which indicates high volatility in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 12)
~FIIs net in Index fut. –436 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. – 383cr
~FIIs in Cash Market -856 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market +210 cr
***total fund flow -1465 cr today & nifty was down by 62 points.
*** So far net fund flow of -7916 cr in September series.
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah

nifty chart for today

As SGX nifty is trading at 4095 nifty will be in downtrend with channel as shown in chart.

''We expect the Sensex to repeatedly touch both extremes of the 13,000-16,000 band in the next six months. At each extreme, investors should prepare portfolios for a market move to the other''...Credit Suisse

pl. read http://www.stateofthemarket.net/tradingnotes.htm

-jignesh

Nifty Analysis For Sept 15

***Technicals
Nifty is in 4200-4550 range since many days and 4200 tested second time. So chances of 4200 support get violated are very high now.
Below 4200 (14000 in sensex) downtrend will begin with targets of 4110,3960, 3800.
If 4200 held intact then nifty can bounce back up to 4450.

***Derivatives (September 12)

-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 17 points and around 13 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long at lower levels.
-Nifty call option added 26 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option shed 1 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.94.
-Implied volatility has increased marginally, which indicates high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 11)
~FIIs net in Index fut. -1233 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. –191 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market -1410 cr

~Mut Funds in Cash Market -51 cr
***total fund flow -2885 cr today & nifty was down by 110 points.
*** So far net fund flow of -6451 cr in September series. (Nifty is up in September series). This suggests that upside will be limited only.

***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah

for sept 12

***Technicals
Nifty breaks the important support of 4330-4350 and closed below it.
Now 4200 (14000 in sensex) is last hope and support below which downtrend will begin with targets of 3800, 3600, 3400.
Meanwhile nifty can bounce back up to 4450.

***Derivatives (September 11)
-Nifty (September) future premium decreased to 14 points and around 2 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry,indicating new short at higher levels.
-Nifty call option added 38 lakh shares in open interest, whereasput option shed 17 lakh shares in open interest.Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 1.00.
- implied volatility has increased by around 300-350 basis points across
different strike prices, which indicates high volatility in the coming
days.

***Fund flow (September 10)
~FIIs net in Index fut. -1016 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. -485 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market -870 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market +115 cr
***total fund flow -2256 cr today & nifty was down by 68 points.
*** so far net fund flow of -3566 cr in September series. (nifty is up in September series). This suggests that upside will be limited only.
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)
happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah