Sunday, January 2, 2011
NIFTY AT 20000 IN 2020
---NSE launched Nifty Index on 3rd Nov.1995 with base Index at 1000.
---From that year I have tried to find return on nifty index and compare it with actual closing so as to judge the expected future return on our investment.
---During 1995 to 2000, I have expected 12% Return as our GDP growth during that period was around 4-5%.
---During 2001-2005, I have expected 13% return as our GDP growth increased to 5-7%.
---During 2006 to 2010, I have increased return expectation to 14% as our GDP growth increased to 8-9%.
---Now from 2011 to 2015, I have scaled down return expectation to 13% for no reason.
---Same way from 2016 to 2020, I have further scaled down to 12 % return expectation.
---Please note that this analysis is usefull for long term investors only.