Wednesday, December 31, 2008

UPDATES FOR JAN 1

********************HAPPY NEW YEAR*******************

******Trading system update for NIFTY. (2959)******
~BIAS –neutral. (3d HMA- 2978, 3d LMA-2883)
~MOMENTUM – negative. (3d SMA- 2954, 8d SMA-2965)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2965, 34d SMA-2847)
~Weekly close at 2857.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long (50% only)
*stop loss – 3d SMA (50%)-2954.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2954,2883,2857,2847.
*RESISTANCE-2965,2978.

(our trading system generated LONG call when nifty closed at 2979).

************FUND FLOW UPDATE***********
***Fund flow (December 26)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 60 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 15 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 259 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 206 cr
***total fund flow – 510 cr today & nifty was down by 60 points.

***Fund flow (December 29)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 23 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 63 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 10 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 162 cr
***total fund flow + 112 cr today & nifty was up by 65 points.

***Fund flow (December 30)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 328 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 37 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 124 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 257 cr
***total fund flow + 746 cr today & nifty was up by 57 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 348 cr in January series. (Nifty is also up in January series).

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Trading system update for dec 31

******Trading system update for NIFTY. (2979)******
~BIAS –positive. (3d HMA- 2964, 3d LMA-2852)
~MOMENTUM – negative but closed above 8d SMA. (3d SMA- 2920, 8d SMA-2978)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2978, 34d SMA-2847)
~Weekly close at 2857.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long (50% only as momentum still negative)
*stop loss – 3d SMA (50%)-2920.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2978,2964,2920,2857,2852,2847.
*RESISTANCE-nil.

(our trading system generated short call when nifty closed at 2917 and today generated exit call when nifty closed at 2979……loss of 62 points).

Monday, December 29, 2008

trading system update for dec 30

******Trading system update for NIFTY. (2922)******
~BIAS –neutral.(3d HMA- 2954, 3d LMA-2853)
~MOMENTUM – negative. (3d SMA- 2899, 8d SMA-2975)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2975, 34d SMA-2845)
~Weekly close at 2857.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—short (50% only as closed above 3d SMA)
*stop loss – 3d HMA (50%)-2953.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2899,2857,2853,2845.
*RESISTANCE-2953,2975.

(our trading system generated short call when nifty closed at 2917).
If bias turns positive tomorrow (if closes above 3d HMA) then cut all your shorts and create longs.

Friday, December 26, 2008

UPDATES FOR DEC 29

******Trading system update for NIFTY. (2857)******
~BIAS –negative. (3d HMA- 2989, 3d LMA-2901)
~MOMENTUM – negative. (3d SMA- 2914, 8d SMA-2990)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2990, 34d SMA-2847)
~Weekly close at 2857.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—short
*stop loss – 3d SMA (50%)-2914 & 3d HMA (50%)-2989.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2847.
*RESISTANCE-2901,2914,2989,2990.

(our trading system generated short call when nifty closed at 2917).



******* TECHNICALS UPDATE*******
-Nifty is in sideway trend with downward bias.
-RSI uptrend line broken today.
-MACD is now in sell mode.
-stochastic in sell mode but near oversold.
-ADX suggests that downtrend had begun.
-ATR suggests that after many days nifty range increased.


*******VIX UPDATE*******
-India VIX closed at 45.16

-downward trendline broken today which suggests that fear had re-emerged in market again and downtrend had begun.

************FUND FLOW UPDATE***********

***Fund flow (December 19)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 324 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 51 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 562 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 295 cr
***total fund flow + 1130 cr today & nifty was up by 17 points.

***Fund flow (December 22)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 488 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 40 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 224 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 163 cr
***total fund flow – 589 cr today & nifty was down by 38 points.

***Fund flow (December 23)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 553 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 385 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 272 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 103 cr
***total fund flow – 1313 cr today & nifty was down by 70 points.

***Fund flow (December 24)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 921 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 455 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 118 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 337 cr
***total fund flow – 247 cr today & nifty was down by 52 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 3885 cr in December series. (Nifty + 162 in December series).

***Past fund flow (from June 2008 series)

- 8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in the series),
+ 6474 cr in July series (Nifty +18 in the series),
- 6641 cr in August series (Nifty -119 in the series),
- 6903 cr in September series (Nifty -104 in the series),
- 9863 cr in October series (Nifty -1413 in the series),
- 371 cr in November series (Nifty +58 in the series),
+ 3885 cr in December series (Nifty +162 in the series).

So December series is best series in last 7 months in terms of monthly gain.

Happy trading and investing.

-Dr.Jignesh Shah

technical update

******* nifty daily chart

******* TECHNICALS
-Nifty is in sideway trend.
-RSI is in uptrend and at support.
-MACD in buy mode but converging.
-stochastic in sell mode.
-adx suggest that uptrend is terminated.
-atr suggest that volatility had reduces significantly



Wednesday, December 24, 2008

trading system update

******Trading system for NIFTY DAILY. (2917)
~BIAS – turned negative. (3d HMA- 3039, 3d LMA-2962)
~MOMENTUM – turned negative. (3d SMA- 2975, 8d SMA-3005)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-3005, 34d SMA-2855)
~Weekly close at 3077.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—short
*stop loss – 3d SMA (50%)-2975 & 3d HMA (50%)-3039.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2855.
*RESISTANCE-2975,3006,3039,3077.
(our trading system generated long call when nifty was at 2784 and it generated exit call when nifty closed at 2968……..gain of 184 points).

Friday, December 19, 2008

updates for dec 22

******Trading system for NIFTY DAILY. (3077)
~BIAS
– neutral. (3d HMA- 3085, 3d LMA-2967)
~MOMENTUM – positive. (3d SMA- 3031, 8d SMA-2986)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2986, 34d SMA-2846)
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long.
*stop loss – 3d SMA(50%)-3031 & 3d LMA(50%)-2967.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 3031,2986,2967,2846.
*RESISTANCE-3085.

***Fund flow (December 18)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 1019 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 74 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 54 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 181 cr
***total fund flow + 710 cr today & nifty was up by 106 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 4904 cr in December series. (Nifty is also up in December series).

Thursday, December 18, 2008

updates for dec 19

******Trading system update for NIFTY DAILY. (3061)
~BIAS – neutral. (3d HMA- 3067, 3d LMA-2943)
~MOMENTUM – positive. (3d SMA- 3019, 8d SMA-2949)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2949, 34d SMA-2835)
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long.
*stop loss – 3d SMA(50%)-3019 & 3d LMA(50%)-2943.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 3019,2949,2943,2835.
*RESISTANCE-3067.


***Fund flow (December 12)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 665 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 230 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 106 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 124 cr
***total fund flow – 877 cr today & still nifty was up by 1 point.

***Fund flow (December 15)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 201 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 3 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 239 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 161 cr
***total fund flow + 202 cr today & nifty was up by 60 points.

***Fund flow (December 16)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 539 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 4 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 27 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 56 cr
***total fund flow + 506 cr today & nifty was up by 60 points.

***Fund flow (December 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 172 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 37 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 109 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 167 cr
***total fund flow – 67 cr today & nifty was down by 87 points.

*** So far net fund flow of + 4194 cr in December series. (Nifty is also up in December series).

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

updates for dec 18

******Trading system update for Nifty. (2954)
~BIASturned neutral. ( 3d HMA- 3047, 3d LMA-2941)
~MOMENTUM – positive. (3d SMA- 2992, 8d SMA-2906)
~TREND – positive. (8d SMA-2906, 34d SMA-2819)
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long.(hold only 50% as closed below 3d SMA)
*stop loss – 3d LMA(50%)-2941.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2941,2906,2819.
*RESISTANCE-2992,3047.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

trading system update

******Trading system for NIFTY DAILY. (2981)
~BIAS – turned positive. ( 3d HMA- 2965, 3d LMA-2864)
~MOMENTUM –positive. (3d SMA- 2941, 8d SMA-2834)
~TREND – turned positive. (8d SMA-2834, 34d SMA-2805)
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long.(100%)
*stop loss – 3d SMA(50%)-2941 & 3d LMA(50%)-2864.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2965,2941,2864,2834,2805.
*RESISTANCE-nil.

Monday, December 8, 2008

FOR DEC 10




*******Technicals
Nifty is in short term uptrend and medium term trend is still sideway.

******Trading system for NIFTY. (2784)
Ø 3d LMA- 2687, 3dHMA- 2825.
3d SMA- 2762, 8dSMA-2724, 34d SMA-2827.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM –positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—long.
*stop loss - 3d SMA(50%)-2762 & 3d LMA(50%)-2687.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2762,2724,2687.
*RESISTANCE-2825,2827.

***Fund flow (December 2)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 138 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 116 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 320 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 327 cr
***total fund flow – 901 cr today & nifty was down by 25 points.

***Fund flow (December 3)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 44 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 203 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 487 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 106 cr
***total fund flow – 134 cr today & nifty was down by 2 points.

***Fund flow (December 4)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 769 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 90 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 448 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 84 cr
***total fund flow + 1391 cr today & nifty was up by 131 points.

***Fund flow (December 5)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 261 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 182 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 51 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 195 cr
***total fund flow – 587 cr today & nifty was down by 78 points.

*** So far net fund flow of + 35 cr in December series.

for dec 8


Wednesday, December 3, 2008

for december 3

*******Technicals
Nifty is in downmove of probable sideway trend.
***Fund flow (November 26)

~FIIs net in Index fut. + 750 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 244 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 436 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 313 cr
***total fund flow + 871 cr today & nifty was up by 98 points.
***Fund flow (November 28)

~FIIs net in Index fut. - 743 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 254 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 419 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 605 cr
***total fund flow + 535 cr today & nifty was up by 3 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 371 cr in November series. (Nifty is + 58 in November series).
***Fund flow (December 1)


~FIIs net in Index fut. + 230 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 43 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market +154 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 75 cr
***total fund flow + 266 cr today & still nifty was down by 72 points.
***Past fund flow

- 8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in the series),
+ 6474 cr in July series (Nifty +18 in the series),
- 6641 cr in August series (Nifty -119 in the series),
- 6903 cr in September series (Nifty -104 in the series),
- 9863 cr in October series (Nifty -1413 in the series),
- 371 cr in November series (Nifty +58 in the series).

Sunday, November 30, 2008

FOR DEC 1

*******Technicals
Nifty is in upmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY. (2755)
Ø 3d LMA- 2657, 3dHMA- 2777.
3d SMA- 2720, 8dSMA-2679, 34d SMA-2949.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM –positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2720,2679,2657.
*RESISTANCE-2777,2949.
******Trading system for Reliance Ind. (1134)
Ø 3d LMA- 1070, 3dHMA- 1168.
3d SMA- 1115, 8dSMA-1118, 34d SMA-1266.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1118,1115,1070.
*RESISTANCE-1168,1266.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

FOR NOV 27

*******Technicals
Nifty is in upmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY. (2752)
Ø 3d LMA- 2638, 3dHMA- 2764.
3d SMA- 2705, 8dSMA-2685, 34d SMA-2974.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM –positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2705,2685,2638.
*RESISTANCE-2764,2974.

******Trading system for Reliance Ind. (1139)
Ø 3d LMA- 1064, 3dHMA- 1171.
3d SMA- 1119, 8dSMA-1119, 34d SMA-1284.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – neutral, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1119,1119,1064.
*RESISTANCE-1171,1284.

******Trading system for NTPC. (164.5)
Ø 3d LMA- 150.8, 3dHMA- 160.4.
3d SMA- 157.3, 8dSMA-148.4, 34d SMA-151.6.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional— long
*stop loss - 3d SMA(50%)-157.3& 3d LMA(50%)-150.8.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 160.4,157.3,151.6,150.8,148.4.
*RESISTANCE-nil.

***Fund flow (November 24)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 6cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 89cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 312 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 104cr
***total fund flow – 125 cr today & nifty was up by 15 points.

***Fund flow (November 25)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 373cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 158 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 1 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 118 cr
***total fund flow + 650 cr today & still nifty was down by 54 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 1777 cr in November series.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Trading system for nov 26

******Trading system for NIFTY. (2654)
Ø 3d LMA- 2604, 3dHMA- 2750.
3d SMA- 2685, 8dSMA-2692, 34d SMA-2999.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2604.
*RESISTANCE-2685,2692,2750,2999.

******Trading system for Reliance Ind. (1072)
Ø 3d LMA- 1052, 3dHMA- 1174.
3d SMA- 1114, 8dSMA-1120, 34d SMA-1299.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional—neutral.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1052.
*RESISTANCE-1114,1120,1174,1299.

******Trading system for NTPC. (153.9)
Ø 3d LMA- 145.7, 3dHMA- 156.
3d SMA- 152.6, 8dSMA-146.5, 34d SMA-151.7.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional— long
*stop loss - 3d SMA(50%)-152.6 & 3d LMA(50%)-145.7.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 152.6,151.7,146.5,145.7.
*RESISTANCE-156.

******Trading system for SBIN. (1072)
Ø 3d LMA- 1087, 3dHMA- 1207.
3d SMA- 1134, 8dSMA-1127, 34d SMA-1270.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*Positional— short
*stop loss - 3d SMA(50%)- 1134 and at 3d HMA(50%)- 1207.
Ø *SUPPORTS- nil.
*RESISTANCE-1087,1127,1134,1207,1270.

Monday, November 24, 2008

FOR NOV 25

*******Technicals
Nifty is in upmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY. (2708)
Ø 3d LMA- 2559, 3dHMA- 2698.
3d SMA- 2651, 8dSMA-2716, 34d SMA-3032.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—neutral.
Risky traders can initiate longs with stoploss at 3d SMA at 2651.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2698,2651,2559.
*RESISTANCE-2716,3032.

******Trading system for Reliance Ind. (1145)
Ø 3d LMA- 1049, 3dHMA- 1144.
3d SMA- 1108, 8dSMA-1131, 34d SMA-1319.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—neutral.
Risky traders can initiate longs with stoploss at 3d SMA at 1108.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1144,1131,1108,1049.
*RESISTANCE-1319.

******Trading system for NTPC. (153.5)
Ø 3d LMA- 138.3, 3dHMA- 149.3.
3d SMA- 147.5, 8dSMA-146, 34d SMA-152.3.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—hold longs and initiate new longs at support levels. Keep stoploss at 3d SMA(50%)-147.5 and at 3d LMA(50%)-138.3.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 152.3,149.3,147.5,146,138.3.
*RESISTANCE-nil.

******Trading system for SBIN. (1147)
Ø 3d LMA- 1074, 3dHMA- 1210.
3d SMA- 1139, 8dSMA-1140, 34d SMA-1282.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – neutral, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— hold longs with stop at 3d SMA at 1139(50%) and at 3d LMA at 1074(50%).
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1140,1139,1074.
*RESISTANCE-1210,1282.

**********(GLAXO gained 23 rs. and DLF lost 7 rs. hold both position)

***Fund flow (November 21)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 647 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 176 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 514 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 24 cr
***total fund flow – 19 cr today & nifty was up by 140 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 2302 cr in November series. (Nifty is also down in November series).

Friday, November 21, 2008

my mechanical trading system

******Trading system update for NIFTY. (2693)
Ø 3d LMA- 2554, 3dHMA- 2708.
3d SMA- 2627, 8dSMA-2745, 34d SMA-3069.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—Neutral.
Hold only 50% of shorts. Keep stoploss at 3d HMA (50%)-2708.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 2627, 2554.
*RESISTANCE-2708, 2745, 3069.

******Trading system update for Reliance Ind. (1124)
Ø 3d LMA- 1062, 3dHMA- 1159.
3d SMA- 1104, 8dSMA-1139, 34d SMA-1342.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— Neutral.
Hold only 50% of shorts. Keep stop at 3d HMA (50%) which is at 1159.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1104, 1062.
*RESISTANCE-1139, 1159, 1342.

******Trading system for GLAXO. (1130)
Ø 3d LMA- 1117, 3dHMA- 1072.
3d SMA- 1106, 8dSMA-1086, 34d SMA-1086.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – neutral.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—hold longs and initiate new longs at support levels. Keep stoploss at 3d SMA(50%)-1106 and at 3d LMA(50%)-1072.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1117,1106,1086,1072.
*RESISTANCE-nil.

******Trading system for DLF. (198)
Ø 3d LMA- 199.8, 3dHMA- 225.5.
3d SMA- 209.8, 8dSMA-230, 34d SMA-266.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— hold shorts and initiate new shorts at resistance levels. Keep stop at 3d SMA(50%) which is at 209.8 and at 3d HMA(50%) which is at 225.5.
Ø *SUPPORTS- nil.
*RESISTANCE-199.8,209.8,225.5,230,266.

fund flow

***Fund flow (November 14)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 194 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 74 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 564 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 305 cr
***total fund flow – 1138 cr today & nifty was down by 38 points.
***Fund flow (November 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 46 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 97 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 632 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 376 cr
***total fund flow – 1059 cr today & nifty was down by 10 points.
***Fund flow (November 18)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 681 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 8 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 369 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 45 cr
***total fund flow – 1103 cr today & nifty was down by 117 points.
***Fund flow (November 19)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 244 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 39 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 208 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 51 cr
***total fund flow – 54 cr today & nifty was down by 48 points.
***Fund flow (November 20)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 743 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 310 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 656 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 99cr
***total fund flow – 1917 cr today & nifty was down by 92 points.

*** So far net fund flow of - 2283cr in November series. (Nifty is also down in November series).
***Past fund flow
Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1413).

Saturday, November 15, 2008

FOR NOV 17

*******Technicals
Nifty is in downmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2831, 3dHMA- 3020.
3d SMA- 2866, 8dSMA-2969, 34d SMA-3265.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—hold shorts and initiate new shorts at resistance levels. Keep stoploss at 3d SMA(50%)-2866 and at 3d HMA(50%)-3020.
Ø *SUPPORTS- nil.
*RESISTANCE-2831,2866,2969,3020,3265.

******Trading system for Reliance Ind.
Ø 3d LMA- 1141, 3dHMA- 1231.
3d SMA- 1172, 8dSMA-1241, 34d SMA-1469.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— hold shorts and initiate new shorts at resistance levels. Keep stop at 3d SMA(50%) which is at 1172 and at 3d HMA(50%) which is at 1231.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1141.
*RESISTANCE-1172,1231,1241,1469.

***Fund flow (November 12)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 86 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 44 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 615 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 60 cr
***total fund flow – 805 cr today & nifty was down by 90 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 2879 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).

***Past fund flow

Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1413).
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Thursday, November 13, 2008

FOR NOV 14


*******Technicals
Nifty is in downmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2896, 3dHMA- 3095.
3d SMA- 2978, 8dSMA-2998, 34d SMA-3304.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—hold shorts and initiate new shorts at resistance levels. Keep stoploss at 3d SMA(50%)-2978 and at 3d HMA(50%)-3095
Ø *SUPPORTS- nil.
*RESISTANCE-2896,2978,2998,3095,3304.

******Trading system for Reliance Ind.
Ø 3d LMA- 1191, 3dHMA- 1268.
3d SMA- 1224, 8dSMA-1278, 34d SMA-1494.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— hold shorts and initiate new shorts at resistance levels. Keep stop at 3d SMA(50%) which is at 1224 and at 3d HMA(50%) which is at 1268.
Ø *SUPPORTS- nil.
*RESISTANCE-1191,1224,1268,1278,1494.

***Fund flow (November 11)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 325 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 79 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 266 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 222 cr
***total fund flow – 892 cr today & nifty was down by 210 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 3684 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

FOR NOV 12

*******Technicals
Nifty is in downmove of probable sideway trend.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2917, 3dHMA- 3106.
3d SMA- 3020, 8dSMA-3002, 34d SMA-3344.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – positive (but nifty closed below 3d & 8d SMA), TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—longs keep stoploss at 3d LMA which is at 2917.
Create shorts if nifty trades and closes below 3d LMA tomorrow.
Ø *SUPPORT- 2917
*RESISTANCE-3002,3020,3106,3344.
******Trading system for Reliance Ind.
Ø 3d LMA- 1193, 3dHMA- 1280.
3d SMA- 1244, 8dSMA-1305, 34d SMA-1520.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional— initiate short(level 1) as closed below 3d SMA with stop at 3d SMA(50%) which is at 1244 and at 3d HMA(50%) which is at 1280.
Ø *SUPPORTS- 1193
*RESISTANCE-1244,1280,1305,1520.

***Fund flow (November 10)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 300 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 66 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 136 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 505 cr
***total fund flow + 875 cr today & nifty was up by 175 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 4576 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).

Monday, November 10, 2008

FOR NOV 11

*******Technicals
Nifty is in upmove of probable sideway trend.
****Trading system for NIFTY
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—buy on dips as bias turned positive today and momentum already positive. Please keep stoploss at 3d LMA which is at 2898.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- stopped out.
*for longs---2898.
***Fund flow (November 6)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 965 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 112 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 414 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 120 cr
***total fund flow – 1611 cr today & nifty was down by 102 points.
***Fund flow (November 7)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 35 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. -33 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 60 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 82 cr
***total fund flow – 20 cr today & nifty was up by 80 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 3701 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).
***Past fund flow
Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1413).
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Saturday, November 8, 2008

FOLLOW THE TREND

Does everyone lose at bad times? No. There are winners. They are the trend followers.
What is trend following? Trend trading is reactive and systematic by nature. It does not forecast or predict markets or price levels. Prediction is impossible! Trend trading demands that you have strong self-discipline to follow precise rules (no guessing or wild emotions). It involves a risk management system that uses current market price, the equity level in your account and current market volatility. Trend traders use an initial risk rule that determines your position size at the time of entry. This means you know exactly how much to buy or sell based on how much money you have. Changes in price may lead to a gradual reduction or increase of your initial trade. On the other hand, adverse price movements may lead to an exit for your entire trade. Historically, A trend trader's average profit per trade is significantly higher than the average loss per trade.
Beyond the mere rules, the human element is core to the strategy. It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with trend trading through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind though, Trend Followers expect ups and downs. They are planned for in advance. What must all trend followers consider?
Price: One of the first rules of trend following is that price is the main concern. If a market is at 60 and goes to 58, 57, 53 - the market is in a down trend. Despite what every news show might predict, if the trend is down, stay with the trend. A trader need only be concerned with what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The price tells you what the market is doing.
Money Management: The most critical factor of trend following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the determination of how much to trade over the course of the trend.
Risk Control: Trend following is grounded in a system of risk control and money management. The math is straightforward and easy to learn. During periods of higher market volatility, your trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more favorable price trends reappear. Cutting losses is the way to stay in the game.
Rules Rule: Trend following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. Trend Following is not based on an analysis of fundamental supply or demand factors. Trend Following does NOT involve seasonals, point and figure, Market Profile, triangles or day trading.
Trend Following answers these critical questions:
How and when to enter the market.
How many contracts or shares to trade at any time.
How much money to risk on each trade.
How to exit the trade if it becomes unprofitable.
How to exit the trade if it becomes profitable.
from----
http://turtletrader.com/it.html

Friday, November 7, 2008

FOR NOV 10


**********Technicals
Nifty is trading sideway since two days in 2860-3020 range.
Any breakout from range will give direction to the market.
Nifty gives 3 week high closing and weekly stochastic had given a buy signal.
2885 is last weekly and monthly close which proves good support.
Chances of breaking the range on higher side are high now.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2897, 3dHMA- 3086.
3d SMA- 2954, 8dSMA-2914, 34d SMA-3409.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—neutral.
Those holding short should keep SAR (stop and reverse) at 3d HMA which is at 3086.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- 3086.
*for longs---2897.


***Fund flow (November 5)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 607 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 323 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 339 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 400 cr
***total fund flow + 869 cr today still nifty was down by 147 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 5332 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).


(FII have turned buyers in november series so far in all three segments-cash,index and stock fut)

Thursday, November 6, 2008

FOR NOV 7




*******Technicals
Nifty is correcting the recent upmove.
Fibonacci targets for the correction are 2865, 2747, 2629.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2939, 3dHMA- 3134.
3d SMA- 3010, 8dSMA-2859, 34d SMA-3439.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—short in rise as bias turned negative and trend is already negative with stop loss of 3d HMA which is at 3134. (Longs stopped out today).
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- 3134.
*for longs---stopped out.
***Fund flow (November 4)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 604 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 30 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 93 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 169 cr
***total fund flow + 372 cr today & nifty was up by 98 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 4463 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

FOR NOV 6




*******Technicals
Much awaited correction came today.
Long upper shadow with engulfing bear candle formed today which is bearish.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2947, 3dHMA- 3152.
3d SMA- 3060, 8dSMA-2819, 34d SMA-3474.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—Buy in every dip or hold longs as momentum is positive with stop loss of 3d LMA which is at 2947.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- 3152.
*for longs---2947.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

FOR NOV 5

*******Technicals
Nifty is trading in corrective upmove and will trade sideway afterwards.

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2855, 3dHMA- 3045
3d SMA- 3024, 8dSMA-2813,34d SMA-3506
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—Buy in every dip or hold longs as momentum and bias are positive with stop loss of 3d LMA which is at 2855.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- stopped out.
*for longs---2855.

***Fund flow (November 3)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 962 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 99 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 762 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 79 cr
***total fund flow + 1744 cr today & nifty was up by 158 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 4091 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).
***Past fund flow
Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1410).
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Monday, November 3, 2008

FOR NOV 4




*******Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.

******Trading system for NIFTY

Ø 3d LMA- 2738, 3d HMA- 2921.
3d SMA- 2876, 8d SMA- 2803, 34d SMA- 3538.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
Positional—Buy in every dip as momentum turned positive and bias is already positive with stoploss of 3d LMA which is at 2738.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- stopped out.
*for longs---2738.
***Fund flow (October 31)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 977 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 230 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 1183 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 43 cr
***total fund flow + 2347 cr today & nifty was up by 188 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 2347 cr in November series. (Nifty is also up in November series).
***Past fund flow
Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1410).
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Saturday, November 1, 2008

FOR NOV 3


*******Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Nifty has corrected 30% from bottom of 2253 so it seems that intermediate bottom has formed at 2253.
Now higher top and bottom is required to claim for uptrend.
******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2618, 3d HMA- 2800.
3d SMA- 2756, 8d SMA- 2827, 34d SMA- 3575.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- no open position.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- stopped out.
*for longs---2618.

***Fund flow (October 29)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 1341 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 606 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market – 1075 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 620 cr
***total fund flow + 1492 cr today & nifty was up by 12 points.
*** Net fund flow of - 9863 cr in October series.
***Past fund flow
Fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (-520), +6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104), - 9863 cr in October series (-1410).
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Thursday, October 30, 2008

FOR OCT 31




******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2470, 3d HMA- 2687.
3d SMA- 2635, 8d SMA- 2857, 34d SMA- 3619.
Ø ~BIAS – positive, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- close shorts as bias turned positive.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- stopprd out.
*for longs---2470.

***Fund flow (October 27)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 482 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 285 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1011 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 503 cr
***total fund flow + 259 cr today & nifty was down by 60 points.

***Fund flow (October 28)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 309 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 65 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 0 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 15 cr
***total fund flow + 389 cr today & nifty was up by 160 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 11355 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

FOR OCT 29

**************************HAPPY NEW YEAR***********************


******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2435, 3d HMA- 2739.
3d SMA- 2598, 8d SMA- 2904, 34d SMA- 3671.
Ø ~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- Hold shorts with closing stop at 2739.It is time to tighten your stop as bias turned neutral
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- 2739.
*for longs---2435.

Monday, October 27, 2008

FOR OCT 28

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2565, 3d HMA- 2869.
3d SMA- 2685, 8d SMA- 2977, 34d SMA- 3724.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- Hold shorts with closing stop at 2869.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts--- 2869.
*for longs---stopped out
***Fund flow (October 24)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 1034 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 205 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1178 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 319 cr
***total fund flow – 2326 cr today & nifty down by 359 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 12003 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Friday, October 24, 2008

FOR OCT 27

******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 2932, 3d HMA- 3086.
3d SMA- 2864, 8d SMA- 3079, 34d SMA- 3778.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- Hold shorts with closing stop at 3086.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts at 3086.
*for longs stopped out

***Fund flow (October 23)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 385 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 26 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 347 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 81 cr
***total fund flow – 787 cr today & nifty down by 122 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 9677 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Thursday, October 23, 2008

FOR OCT 24

******************TREND AND MOMENTUM CHART
******************* BIAS CHART


******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 3029, 3d HMA- 3192.
3d SMA- 3081, 8d SMA- 3195, 34d SMA- 3833.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- No new call generated.
*Open position- Hold shorts with closing stop at 3192.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts at 3192.
*for longs stopped out.
***Fund flow (October 22)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 1057 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. - 4 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 273 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 18 cr
***total fund flow – 1316 cr today & nifty down by 170 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 8890 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

FOR OCT 23




******Trading system for NIFTY
Ø 3d LMA- 3076, 3d HMA- 3243.
3d SMA- 3141, 8d SMA- 3264, 34d SMA- 3879.
Ø ~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
Ø STRATEGY-
*New call- sell nifty as bias turned negative today.
*Open position- Hold shorts with closing stop at 3243.
Ø STOPLOSS-
*for shorts at 3243.
*for longs stopped out

***Fund flow (October 21)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 608 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 392 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 114 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 602 cr
***total fund flow + 1716 cr today & nifty was up by 112 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 7574 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

FOR OCT 22

***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and now it seems that nifty will trade sideways in 3050-3500 range for some time.
Nifty is in process of intermediate bottom formation.
So far bottom is formed at 3047.
******Trading system for NIFTY
3d LMA- 3074, 3d HMA- 3276.
3d SMA- 3155, 8d SMA- 3291, 34d SMA- 3917.
~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold shorts with closing stop at 3276)
~stoploss for shorts at 3276.It is time to tighten your stop if you are short as bias turned neutral.
~stoploss for longs at 3074.
***Derivatives (October 21)
-Nifty (October) future premium decreased to 7 points and around 15 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating new shorts at higher levels.

-Nifty call option shed 10.5 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 27.5 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.78.

-Implied volatility has decreased by 1000 points which indicate stability in the coming days.

***Fund flow (October 20)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 461 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 219 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 840 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 219 cr
***total fund flow + 59 cr today & nifty was up by 48 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 9290 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).
***Past fund flow

-8071 cr in June series (-520),+6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104)& closed at 4110.(-15141 cr from May closing of 4835)
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Monday, October 20, 2008

FOR OCT 21


******Trading system for NIFTY
3d LMA- 3068, 3d HMA- 3303.
3d SMA- 3155, 8d SMA- 3326, 34d SMA- 3950.
~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold shorts with closing stop at 3303)
~stoploss for shorts at 3303.It is time to tighten your stop if you short as bias turned neutral today.
~stoploss for longs at 3068.
***Fund flow (October 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 325 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 179cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 868 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market + 113 cr
***total fund flow – 901 cr today & nifty was down by 180 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 9349 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Fund flow data & Analysis for Oct 17

study case of trading system---tata steel.
here trend,momentum,bias all negative.
study case for trading system------bank of india.
here trend,momentum,bias all positive

******Trading system for BANK NIFTY
3d LMA- 5339, 3d HMA- 5638.
3d SMA- 5495, 8d SMA- 5395, 34d SMA- 5944.
~BIAS – neutral, MOMENTUM – positive, TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold longs with closing stop at 5339)
~stoploss for shorts at 5638.
~stoploss for longs at 5339.

******Trading system for NIFTY
3d LMA- 3305, 3d HMA- 3500.
3d SMA- 3375, 8d SMA- 3452, 34d SMA- 4018.
~BIAS – negative, MOMENTUM – negative, TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold shorts with closing stop at 3500)
~stoploss for shorts at 3500.
~stoploss for longs stopped out.



***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and now it seems that nifty will trade sideways in 3100-3500 range for some time.
Nifty is in process of intermediate bottom formation.
So far bottom is formed at 3100.

***Derivatives (October 16)
-Nifty (October) future premium increased to 20 points and around 4 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new longs at lower levels.
-Nifty call option add 12 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 3 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.73.
-Implied volatility has increased by 700 points(IVs around 65-70%) which indicate very high volatility in the coming days.



***Fund flow (October 14)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 1207 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 538 cr,
~FIIs in Cash Market - 189 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 261 cr

***total fund flow +1295 cr today & nifty was up by 28 points.
***Fund flow (October 15)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 531 cr, FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 100cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 841 cr, Mut Funds in Cash Market - 383 cr

***total fund flow – 1655 cr today & nifty was down by 180 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 5877 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520),+6474 cr in July series (+18), -6641 cr in August series (-119), -6903 cr in September series (-104)& closed at 4110.(-15141 cr from May closing of 4835)
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah


Wednesday, October 15, 2008

FOR OCT 15

***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Nifty is in process of intermediate bottom formation.
So far bottom is formed at 3199.

******Trading system
3d LMA- 3321.
3d HMA- 3553.
3d SMA- 3430.
8d SMA- 3598.
34d SMA- 4078.
~BIAS - neutral
~MOMENTUM - negative
~TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated. (Hold shorts with closing stop at 3553)
Shorts should have stop at 3553 and Longs should have stop at 3321.

***Derivatives (October 14)
-Nifty (October) future premium decreased to 9 points and around 27 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating new short at higher levels.

-Nifty call option add 1 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 7 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.76.

-Implied volatility has decreased by 250 points which indicate stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (October 13)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 1742 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 786 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 842 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 520 cr
***total fund flow + 2206 cr today & nifty was up by 211 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 5517 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Analysis For October 14


***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Nifty is in process of intermediate bottom formation.
******Trading system
3d LMA- 3267.
3d HMA- 3539.
3d SMA- 3428
8d SMA- 3648
34d SMA- 4102
~BIAS - neutral
~MOMENTUM - negative
~TREND – negative.
~STRATEGY-no new call generated.
Shorts should have stop at 3539 and Longs should have stop at 3267.

***Derivatives (October 13)
-Nifty (October) future premium increased to 43 points and around 1.8 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.
-Nifty call option add 8 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 15 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.75.
-Implied volatility has decreased by 800-900 points which indicate stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (October 10)
~FIIs net in Index fut. - 8 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 143 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 2323 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 315 cr
***total fund flow – 1873 cr today & nifty was down by 233 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 7723 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.
-6903 cr in September series (-104), closed at 4110.
*******so in a nutshell, net fund flow of
– 15141 cr after May closing of 4835,
- 7070 cr after June closing of 4315.
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Thursday, October 9, 2008

FOR OCT 10

*******Nifty Charts
The first chart is usefull only to investors not traders.
It clearly shows positive divrgence means our market will witness very fast recovery or rally sooner then later.


Second chart is for traders which shows that relief rally can come anytime now as all indicators are oversold. ***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and is in process of intermediate bottom formation.
Today bottom formed at 3329.

***Derivatives (October 8)
-Nifty (October) future premium decreased to 22 points and around 3 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating new short position at higher levels.
-Nifty call option add 20 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.77.
-Implied volatility has increased by 200-300 points which indicate high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (October 6)
~FIIs net in Index fut. – 1010 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. – 239 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1121 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market - 231 cr
***total fund flow – 2601 cr today & nifty was down by 216 points.

***Fund flow (October 7)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 188 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. – 85 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 548 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market - 307 cr
***total fund flow – 752 cr today & nifty was up by 4 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 4645 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.
-6903 cr in September series (-104), closed at 4110.
*******so in a nutshell, net fund flow of
– 15141 cr after May closing of 4835,
- 7070 cr after June closing of 4315.
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Nifty Analysis for Oct 3


***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Downside supports are at 3930, 3880.
Resistance will be at 4010, 4080.
Above 4120 downtrend will be terminated.

***Derivatives (October 1)
-Nifty (October) future premium increased to 16 points and around 3 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long position at lower levels.
-Nifty call option add 12 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 23 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.96.
-Implied volatility has decreased by 100-200 points which indicate stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 30)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 427 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 230 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 84 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 402 cr (prov.)
***total fund flow + 1143 cr today & nifty was up by 71 points.
*** So far net fund flow of + 151 cr in October series. (But nifty is down in October series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.
-6903 cr in September series (-104), closed at 4110.
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Nifty Analysis for Oct 1




***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Downside supports are at 3880, 3800.
Resistance will be at 4010, 4080.
Above 4120 downtrend will be terminated.
***Derivatives (September 30)
-Nifty (October) future premium decreased to 6 points and around 6 lakh shares were shed in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating long unwinding at higher levels.
-Nifty call option add 9 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 18 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.93.
-Implied volatility has decreased marginally which indicate stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 29)
~FIIs net in Index fut. – 480 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. – 66 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market + 387 cr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~Mut Funds in Cash Market - 38 cr
***total fund flow – 197 cr today & nifty was down by 135 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 992 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).

***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.
-6903 cr in September series (-104), closed at 4110.
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Monday, September 29, 2008

NIFTY REPORT FOR SEPT 30


***Technicals
Nifty is in terminal phase of downtrend.
Downside supports are at 3800,3750,3600.
Resistance will be at 3930,3990,4056.
***Derivatives (September 29)
-Nifty (October) future premium decreased to 9 points and around 14 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating new short position at higher levels.
-Nifty call option add 43 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 7 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.90.
-Implied volatility has increased by 500-600 points which indicates high volatility in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 26)
~FIIs net in Index fut. – 158 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 34 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 604 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market - 67 cr
***total fund flow – 795 cr today & nifty was down by 125 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 795 cr in October series. (Nifty is also down in October series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.
-6903 cr in September series (-104), closed at 4110.
Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Nifty Analysis for September 26


***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend but trading sideways almost between 4100-4300 since 5 days.
Downside supports at 4056, 3992.
Resistance will be at 4163, 4190, 4217, 4245, and 4310.
***Derivatives (September 25)
-Nifty (october) future premium increased to 48 points!!!!!!!!!!!! and around 26 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long position at lower levels.
-October series started with 2.73 crore shares in open interest in nifty and only 19,700 crore open interest in stock futures.
-October series has started with put call ratio of 1.17.
-Market wide rollover was 76%, whereas rollover in Nifty futures was 63%.
***Fund flow (September 24)
~FIIs net in Index fut. – 151 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 41 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 174 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 31 cr
***total fund flow - 253 cr today & nifty was up by 35 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 5670 cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.

Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR SEPTEMBER 25

***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend but trading sideways between 4100-4300 since 4 days.
Downside supports at 4111, 4056, 3992.
Resistance will be at 4200, 4245, 4310.
***Derivatives (September 24)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 19 points and around 3 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.
-Nifty call option add 12 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option add 8 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.94.
-Implied volatility has decreased marginally which indicates stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 23)
~FIIs net in Index fut. – 803 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. – 80 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 868 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market - 226 cr
***total fund flow - 1977 cr today & nifty was down by 96 points.
*** So far net fund flow of -5417 cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (-520), closed at 4315.
+6474 cr in July series (+18), closed at 4333.
-6641 cr in August series (-119), closed at 4214.

Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR SEPT 24

***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend.
Downside supports at 4111, 4056, 3992.
Resistance will be at 4200,4245,4310.
***Derivatives (September 23)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 16 points and around 16 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long position at lower levels.
-Nifty call option add 14 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option shed 9 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.95.
-Implied volatility has increased marginally which indicates high volatility in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 22)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 534 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 287 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market +111 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market -332 cr
***total fund flow + 600 cr today & still nifty was down by 47 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 3440 cr in September series.
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
+6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
-6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

FOR SEPT 23


***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Upside targets of corrective upmove was at 4310 and achieved also.
Below 4050 downtrend can resume again.
Above 4450 nifty will be in uptrend.
4148 is 8 SMA which will provide support on downside.
***Derivatives (September 22)
-Nifty (September) future premium decreased to 12 points and around 11 lakh shares were added in open interest with decrease in the cost of carry, indicating new short position at higher levels.
-Nifty call option shed 7 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 12 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 1.00.
-Implied volatility has increased by 500 basis points which indicates high volatility in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 19)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 2947 cr !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 867 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market +1168 cr !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
~Mut Funds in Cash Market +168 cr
***total fund flow + 5150 cr !!!!!!!!!! today & nifty was up by 207 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 4040 cr in September series.
***Past fund flow
-8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
+6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
-6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

Sunday, September 21, 2008

START INVESTING IN MUTUAL FUNDS

This year markets have corrected from 6300 to 3800 (nifty) and from 21000 to 14000 (sensex). This has been substantial and a further cut of 20-30% is possible.
Time wise, the correction can last for another year in which a lot of sideways (timewise) correction is possible.
Since one can never catch the bottom and the long term is bullish, it makes sense to start investing systematically in mutual funds.
All AMCs offer SIP (systematic investment plan) and these are best when markets are correcting. Since the correction has been substantial, the timing to start this is now.
An advantage of SIP is it is cost based which means the amount you invest is fixed every month. You can start with even Rs.1000/- pm and as markets correct, you get more units but if markets rally, you get fewer units.Rs.1000/- pm is not much and will be a forced saving anyway as it is invest and forget.
The benefits of compounding will also kick in and these are substantial.You will need to have a time frame of 5-7 years at the very least and you can start with 2-3 funds.
---KAMLESH LANGOTE
http://www.vfmdirect.com/

Bigger bull run yet to come: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is India’s most successful investors; one of the stock market’s most successful stories. The sometimes maverick, often mercurial but always a respected voice. He is a wealth creator and a man who anyone who enters the stock market wants to be.

Here is a verbatim transcript of Investor and Trader, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala' s exclusive interview with Mitali Mukherjee on CNBC TV18's Wealth Creators show. Also watch the accompanying video.

Published on Sat, Sep 20, 2008 at 20:16 , Updated at Mon, Sep 22, 2008 at 10:15 http://www.moneycon trol.com/ mccode/news/ article/news_ article.php? autono=356959
Source : CNBC-TV18

Friday, September 19, 2008

NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR SEPT 22


***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
Upside targets of corrective upmove were 4130, 4220 which achieved today, above it target is at 4310 and maximum upto 4470.
***Derivatives (September 19)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 27 points and around 24 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long position at lower levels.
-Nifty call option shed 42 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 20 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.96.
-Implied volatility has decreased by 800-950 basis points (up to 36-40 %), which indicates stability in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 18)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 512 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 44 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 599 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 940 cr
***total fund flow + 897 cr today & nifty was up by 30 points.
*** So far net fund flow of – 9190 cr in September series.

***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

Happy trading and investing.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

FOLLOW UP DOW CHART

ON wednesday at 10.30 pm when I received lots of panic calls from friends I look at dow chart from coldaro, and then I notice positive divergence in RSI in hourly charts.
promptly I posted same over here stating that 'panic will end very soon'.
now look at the chart,positive divergence worked very well and dow had broken out from falling wedge.(dow closed up by 400 points)
unfortunatly i have to delete my earlier post as subsequently all my posts shows same date and time, any help? what to do?
any site which provides hourly charts of nifty or sensex with rsi?

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Nifty Analysis For September 19


***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
3800 target also achieved today which I felt that would be difficult to achieve.
Another long lower shadow formed today which is bullish.
Double bottom formed at 3800 is also bullish.
Upside target of corrective upmove will be 4130, 4220.
Below 3800 downtrend will resume again.

***Derivatives (September 18)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 6 points and around 6 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.

-Nifty call option shed 3 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.83 from 0.82.

-Implied volatility has increased by 400-450 basis points(upto 45-53%%), which indicates high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 268 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 196 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1333 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 410 cr
***total fund flow – 459 cr today & nifty was down by 67 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 10087cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah