Monday, March 31, 2008

data analysis for april 1

****nifty---31 march
nifty future turned into discount of 2.2 points so cost of carry decreased. open interest decreased by 6.8 lacs today.( today's trade dominated by long unwinding).
***options----31 march
nifty call options added 29 lakh and put options added 13 lakh in open interest. thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 1.19.
**** FII derivative data--28 march
FII sold 374 cr index fut. on 28th march.(total sell of 374 cr in april series). there open interest increased to 7.41 lacs contracts.
FII sold 184 cr stock fut. on 28 th march.(total sell of 184 cr in april series). there open interest increased to 8.74 lacs contracts.
********fund flow***28 march
-FII net sell 114cr in cash (total sell of 114 cr in april series).
-mut fund buy 377 cr in cash (total buy of 377 cr in march series).

Sunday, March 30, 2008

data analysis for march 31

****nifty---
nifty future premium increased to 28 points so cost of carry increased. open interest increased by 32 lacs today.( today's trade dominated by new long adition).
high-low made at 4999-4806.
****sumarry of FII index fut. data--
FII sold 818 cr index fut. on 27th march.(total buy 5298 cr in march series). there open interest decreased to 7.32 lacs contracts.( long unwinding by fii on 27th march).
open interest of FII in index future was at 9.97 lacs contracts after the end of feb. series.they net buy 5298 cr index fut in march series. now there open int is at 7.32 lacs contracts only. so massive short covering by them in last series. (on 17th march there open int. was at 11.2 lacs contracts.)
***options----28 march
nifty call options added 17 lakh and put options added 33 lakh in open interest. thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 1.44 from 1.31
********fund flow***27 MARCH
-FII net buy 430cr in cash (total sell of 191 cr in march series).
-mut fund SELL 52 cr (total sell of 1272 cr in march series).

Thursday, March 27, 2008

data analysis for 28 march

*****NIFTY*******27 MARCH
- nifty fut-april premium decreased to 22 points thus COC decreased today.
- OI increased by 76 lacs.
***FII DATA****26 MARCH
--FII buy 123 cr index fut (total BUY of 6116 cr in march series).
-OI of FII increased to 995281 contracts (new long by fii on March 26.)
********FUND FLOW***26 MARCH
-FII net buy 557cr in cash (total sell of 621 cr in march series).
-mut fund SELL 431 cr (total sell of 1220 cr in march series).
-------------sumarry----------
open interest of FII in index future was at 996862 after the end of feb. series which is now at 995281 contracts.
FII buy 6116 cr index futures so far in current series UPTO 26 MARCH.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

diagnostic reports for 27 march

*****NIFTY*******26 MARCH
- nifty fut premium increased to 11 points thus COC increased today.
- OI increased by 64 lacs- march by 11 lacs and april by 53 lacs.(NEW LONG POSITION)***FII DATA****25 MARCH
--FII buy 1536 cr index fut (total BUY of 5993 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased to 934553 contracts (short covering by fii on March 25.)
********FUND FLOW*******
24 MARCH
-FII net buy 324cr in cash..
-mut fund sell 470 cr.in cash market.

25 MARCH
-FII net buy 1345cr in cash (total sell of 1178 cr in current series).
-mut fund buy 534 cr (total sell of 789 cr in current series).

-------------sumarry----------
open interest of FII in index future was at 996862 after the end of feb. series which is now at 934553 contracts.
FII buy 5993 cr index futures so far in current series UPTO 25 MARCH.
SO IT SEEMS THAT FII HAVE COVERED THERE CARRY FORWARDED SHORTS ALSO AND PROBABLY HAVE TAKEN LONG POSITION ALSO.
Now they are buying in cash market also.

NIFTY DIGNOSIS FOR 26 MARCH

*****NIFTY*******25 MARCH- nifty fut premium decreased to 8 points thus COC decreased today.- OI decreased by 15 lacs( LONG UNWINDING)
***FII DATA****24 MARCH--FII buy 1344 cr index fut (total BUY of 4457 cr in current series). -OI of FII increased to 987013 contracts (long addition by fii on March 24.)
***OPTIONS*****25 MARCH-put added 18 lacks and call shedded 6 lacks in OI today.- Nifty open int PCR increased to 0.97 from 0.86.
-------------sumarry----------open interest of FII in index future was at 996862 after the end of feb. series which is now at 987013 contracts.FII buy 4457 cr index futures so far in current series UPTO 24 MARCH.SO IT SEEMS THAT FII HAVE COVERED THERE CARRY FORWARDED SHORTS ALSO AND PROBABLY HAVE TAKEN LONG POSITION ALSO
***cnbc shows that FII buy 1500cr index fut on 25 march****

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

nifty dignostic tools for 25 march

*****NIFTY*******24 MARCH
- nifty fut converted into premium of 21 points thus COC increased today.
- OI increased by 4.6 lacs( NEW LONG POSITION)
***FII DATA*******
18 MARCH
--FII buy 1018 cr index fut (total buy of 1267 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased to 1043842 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 18.)
19 MARCH
--FII buy 1846 cr index fut (total BUY of 3113 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased to 985013 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 19.)***OPTIONS*****24 MARCH
-put added 6 lacks and call added 6.3 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR REMAINS to 0.86.
********FUND FLOW*******
18 MARCH
-FII net sell 687cr in cash (total sell of 3384 cr in current series).
-mut fund buy 65 cr (total sell of 582 cr in current series).
19 MARCH
-FII net buy 537cr in cash (total sell of 2847 cr in current series).
-mut fund sell 291 cr (total sell of 853 cr in current series).
-------------sumarry----------
open interest of FII in index future was at 996862 after the end of feb. series which is now at 985013 contracts.
FII buy 3113 cr index futures so far in current series UPTO 19 MARCH.

SO IT SEEMS THAT FII HAVE COVERED THERE CARRY FORWARDED SHORTS ALSO AND PROBABLY HAVE TAKEN LONG POSITION ALSO.
FII also buy 1385 cr index fut on 24 march(CNBC).
****TECHNICALS****
as poined by me sensex and nifty continue to take support on RSI trendline suggest strength in markets, MACD is alos turning positive so we may witness a rally very soon.
-jignesh

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

nifty diagnosis for 19 march

*****NIFTY*******18 MARCH
- nifty fut converted into premium of 13 points thus COC increased today.
- OI decreased by 43 lacs, april OI increased by 22 lacs( short covering)
-NF make high-low of 4635-4481.
***FII DATA*******17 MARCH
--FII sell 308 cr index fut (total buy of 249 cr in current series).
-OI of FII increased to 11,20,243 contracts ( new short by fii on March 17.)
***OPTIONS*****18 MARCH
-put added 5 lacks and call added 11 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.83.
********FUND FLOW*******17 MARCH
-FII net sell 632cr in cash (total sell of 2697 cr in current series).
-mut fund sell 100 cr (total sell of 627 cr in current series).

Monday, March 17, 2008

diagnostic reports for 18 march

*****NIFTY*******17 MARCH
- nifty fut converted premium to discount of 4 points thus COC decreased today.
- OI decreased by 11 lacs( long unwinding)
-NF make high-low of 4596-4476.
***FII DATA*******14 MARCH
--FII buy 522 cr index fut (total buy of 557 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased to 11,06,603 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 14.)
***OPTIONS*****17 MARCH
-put shedded 0.6 lacks and call added 12.3 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.85.
********FUND FLOW*******
14 MARCH-FII net sell 180 cr in cash (total sell of 2088 cr in current series)
-mut fund----------- (total sell of 206 cr in current series).

Sunday, March 16, 2008

NIFTY DIAGNOSIS FOR 17 MARCH

DIAGNOSTIC REPORTS OF MY PATIENT-----
*****NIFTY*******14 MARCH
- nifty fut discount converted to premium of 1.5 points thus COC increased today.
- OI decreased by 22.8 lacs( short covering)
-NF make high-low of 4759-4566.
***FII DATA*******13 MARCH
--FII sell 73 cr index fut (total buy of 35 cr in current series).
-OI of FII increased to 11,34,367 contracts (new short by fii on March 13.)
***OPTIONS*****14 MARCH
-put added 5.9 lacks and call added 10.9 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.92 and volume PCR decreased to 0.77.
********FUND FLOW*******13 MARCH
-FII net sell 172 cr in cash (total sell of 1908 cr in current series).
-mut.fund net sell 380 cr (total sell of 206 cr in current series).
*********SGX NIFTY*********14 march
-Closed at 4650 makes high-low of 4825-4650. (in T+1)
-this is added to judge the US effect on nifty.
-sgx nifty night trading closes at 10.55 pm singapur time.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

nifty diagnosis

*****NIFTY*******13 MARCH
- nifty fut discount increased to 26 points thus COC decreased today.
- OI increased by 17 lacs(new short)
-NF make high-low of 4739-4555.
***FII DATA*******SEBI DATA
11 MARCH
-FII buy 631 cr index fut.
-OI of FII decreased to 11,40,523 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 11.)
12 MARCH
--FII buy 1384 cr index fut (total buy of 108 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased to 10,96,397 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 12.)

***OPTIONS*****13 MARCH
-put added 5.4 lacks and call added 11 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.94 and volume PCR increased to 0.88.
********FUND FLOW*******12 MARCH
-FII net sell 144 cr in cash (total sell of 1880 cr in current series).
-mut.fund net sell 494 cr (total sell of 320 cr in current series).
imp notice
--DLF and powergrid will be in nifty from 14 march.
-both added significant oi.
- both hammered also today

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

NIFTY DIGNOSIS FOR 13 MARCH

*****NIFTY*******12 MARCH
- nifty fut discount decreased to 3.5 points thus COC increased today.
- OI decreased by 19.3 lacs( short covering)
-NF make high-low of 4997-4855.
***FII DATA*******11 MARCH
-FII buy 641 cr index fut (total sell of 1266 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased by 20000 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 11.)
-this data from cnbc as sebi had not updated data of march 11
***OPTIONS*****12 MARCH
-put added 2 lacks and call added 3.84 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.98 and volume PCR decreased to 0.79.
********FUND FLOW*******11 MARCH
-FII net sell 172 cr in cash (total sell of 1736 cr in current series).
-mut.fund net buy 318 cr (total buy of 174 cr in current series).
technicals-
todays bullish opening gap was filled as nifty continued to come down during the day, so although closed higher than yday, but it made a gravestone kind of doji which might form a short term reversal, next candlestick may confirm it by making lower top.
just looking at bounce it also nearly retraced 61.8% of 5368-4620. this scenario suits wave completion of b of C and opens possibility of c of C to open down. total bigger C will be mild(less than magnitude of A), but if goes below 4245 then whatever bull rally comes after that will be limited to less than 6357.
on the other hand nifty is within falling channel after 4th feb, upper end of which is about 5300 and lower near 4600-4650.
i feel the pain will continue for some more days before the last real upmove begins, maybe some months later in the year nifty will find itself higher but one should be cautious at that time bcos a bigger correction might come after that.
-by senior tech analyst

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

nifty-diagnosis

*****NIFTY*******11 MARCH
- nifty fut discount decreased to 9 points thus COC increased.
- OI decreased by 19.5 lacs( short covering)
-NF make high-low of 4872-4700.

***FII DATA*******10 MARCH
-FII sell 626 cr index fut. (total sell of 1907 cr in current series).
-OI of FII increased to 1160187 contracts ( new short by fii on March 10.)
***OPTIONS*****11 MARCH

-put added 4.7 lacks and call added 7.7 lacks in OI.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.99 and volume PCR increased to 0.95.
********FUND FLOW*******10 MARCH
-FII net sell 1141 cr in cash (total sell of 1564 cr in current series)
-mut.fund net buy 336 cr (total sell of 144 cr in current series).
conclusion--------
technically nifty made bottom on 10th march at 4620 against our target of 4600-4700. now major resistance at 4950 and 5070 only.
fii seems to have booked profit in there puts y'day as there open int decreased and in the money puts shedded oi also.
our mut funds had started buying at lower levels also.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

nifty is also my patient

Everybody must be wondering why a doctor is doing so much of analysis of nifty.

I study nifty in so much detail is I consider it as an alternate to investment.

That's why nifty is also a patient for me.As a doctor we have practice of going for lot many reports before coming for a final diagnosis and line of treatment, same way i study all the details of nifty before coming for final conclusion.
So I feel that one should study all data regarding nifty before taking a call like technical analysis, derivative data, fii & mut fund data for taking call on nifty.

Nifty is a unique patient also as it comes with everyday with new symptoms and we get everyday new diagnosis.
I follow the policy that I am confirm of a dignosis then & then I take the case of nifty I refer it to others to treat.......so in a I feel that dignosis of trend is important in taking care of nifty!!!!

comments are welcome...

Regards
-dr.j.c.shah