Thursday, December 31, 2009

CUES FOR DEC 31



--chart posted by me at vfmforum before 2 months.



--Nifty chart shows mirror image to the fall so far. It will be interesting to watch movement in 2010. Will it complete the remaining part of the mirror image?? only time will tell.
Wish you all Happy new year 2010.


TECHNICAL CUES-------

• SGX Nifty is trading around 5190.
• Nifty made high and low of 5197 and 5160 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4944 and swing top is at 5215.
• Trading above 5188, up move will be seen up to 5200, 5220, 5240.
• Below 5160, correction will be seen up to 5145, 5130, 5120.
In the medium term, Nifty is in uptrend with targets of 5240, 5360.
In the short term, Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 5145, 5120, 5100.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty January future premium decreased to 9 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 0.3 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.99 cr)
• Nifty calls added 12 lacs and puts shed 14 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.47.
• 5100 puts had open interest of 49 lacs (-1%) and 5200 calls had open interest of 64 lacs (+11%), so 5100 and 5200 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 24.62, increased by 1% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 21/29. (Bearish)

Thursday, December 24, 2009

NIFTY DAILY CHART



--As discussed in last post Nifty took support at 4944 and now 5183 top will be taken out easily.
--Current scenario is classic bear trap only.
--Above 5183,Nifty will be in medium term uptrend with targets of 5240, 5360.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

NIFTY CHART


--Nifty 30 minute chart shows that we are in falling wedge and all indicators showsw bullish divergence.



--Nifty daily chart shows that we are now vear very important support zone of 4900-4950.

Friday, December 18, 2009

NIFTY IN TRIANGLE



--Nifty is trading side way in range of 5000-5070 since 3 days.
--any breakout will provide good trading opportunity.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

CUES FOR DECEMBER 15



--Our market is no more a 'deal market' but its a 'dull market'.

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 64 (+0.5%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5103.
• Nifty made high and low of 5157 and 5090 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 5084 and swing top is at 5183.
• Trading above 5120, up move will be seen up to 5145, 5160, 5180.
• Below 5090, correction will be seen up to 5070, 5050, 5030.
• In the medium term, Nifty is in uptrend with targets of 5260, 5400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in uptrend with targets of 5210, 5330. Below 5084, short term uptrend will be terminated.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty December future discount converted in to premium of 1.7 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 1 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.87 cr)
• Nifty calls added 10 lacs and puts added 6 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.29.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 56 lacs (+2%) and 5200 calls had open interest of 70 lacs (+6%), so 5000 and 5200 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 27.89, increased by 2.7% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 18/32. (Bearish)

Thursday, December 10, 2009

MSCI INDIA INDEX




--MSCI INDIA INDEX is currently trading at 64.7 after making new 52 week high at 65.18.
--As it is mirror image of nifty then we should hopefully break above 5182 tommorrow and the picture will be like above chart in our nifty tommorrow.
--Tommorrow IIP data will also be released.

TRADE THE BREAKOUT



--Nifty is trading in a range since past few days and any breakout will give good trading opportunity.
--Currently seems to be in a triangle and trade the breakout from the same.

stock watch-BAG films



--Stock of BAG films shows good breakout from sideway range with good volume.
--guppy indicator is also now in buy mode.

NIFTY-MAKE OR BREAK



--Nifty is trading in 5050-5180 range since 8 days.
--Now it seems to be in make or break condition.
--As the current trend is still up, I expect the breakout from current range to be on the upside.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

CUES FOR DEC 9

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 61.84 (+0.1%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5108.
• Nifty made high and low of 5152 and 5059 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 5051 and swing top is at 5181.
• Trading above 5152, up move continue seen up to 5180, 5210, 5240.
• Below 5120, correction will be seen up to 5090, 5070, 5050.
• Nifty will be in medium term uptrend ‘’above 5182’’ with targets of 5260, 5400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in uptrend with targets of 5210, 5330.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty December future premium increased to 10 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 16 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.94 cr)
• Nifty calls added 6 lacs and puts added 35 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.41.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 60 lacs (+11%) and 5200 calls had open interest of 43 lacs (-5%), so 5000 and 5200 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.46, decreased by 4% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 43/7. (Bullish)

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Positive Divergence In Nifty



--Positive divergence is seen in RSI and MACD.
--It will be interesting to watch that it can impact the price or not.
--5090 needs to be taken out first for any recovery to happen.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

STOCK WATCH-- ROLTA AND IOC



--CHART OF ROLTA SHOWS BREAKOUT FROM DOWNWARD CHANNEL.
--GUPPY INDICATOR NOW IN UPTREND.



--CHART OF IOC SHOWS BREAKOUT FROM DOWNWARD SLOPPING CHANNEL.
--GUPPY INDICATOR SHOWS TREND MAY CHANGE FROM DOWN TO UPTREND.

To understand GUPPY INDICATOR-GUPPY MULTI MOVING AVERAGES(GMMA)

link is--

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/guppy-multiple-moving-average.asp

Friday, December 4, 2009

STOCK WATCH-ANDHRABANK



--Andhrabank chart shows that stock is in good accumulation and had potential to go upside if 121.5 is broken on upside.
--volume is also good since last few days.

Disclaimer--our subscribers are long in Andhrabank at 115.7

NIFTY--TRIANGLE BREAKOUT




--Nifty chart shows that Nifty had now broken on the upside from triangle which we discussed here few days back.
--Guppy indiacator and OBV also favours further upside in the Nifty.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

STOCK WATCH- SUZLON



--Suzlon has broken the downward slopping trendline with good volume.
--Disclaimer--our subscribers are long in suzlon at 74.05 on 30th November.

STOCK WATCH-RECLTD



--RECLTD after consolidation above previous high now heading higher in no resistance zone.
--Disclaimer--our subscribers are long at 244.9 on 1st december.

NIFTY TRENDLINES



--LAST SWING TOP FORMED IN NIFTY WAS AT 5138.
--TRADING ABOVE 5138, NIFTY WILL BE IN UPTREND AGAIN WITH TARGETS OF 5210, 5330.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

NIFTY IN TRIANGLE



--The chart shows that Nifty is consolidating in a triangle.
--4900 is important immediate support and below that 4700 is big supprt area.
--Any trade above 5110 will bring lots of upside.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

PAP SMEAR CAMP

-We have organized 'pap smear camp' at our hospital(Jigisha Nursing Home) on 29th November(Sunday) at 10AM.

-All female viewers residing in Ahmedabad are invited for the same.

-The camp is in collaboration with Reliance Life science and MSD pharmaceuticals.

-Dr.Jignesh Shah, Dr.Jigisha Shah.

what is pap smear??

read here http://niftydoctor-woman-health.blogspot.com/2009/11/paps-smear.html

Friday, November 27, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 27

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• SGX Nifty is trading around 4915.
• Nifty made high and low of 5116 and 4986 on last trading day.
• Last swing top is at 5138.
• Trading above 5020, up move will be seen up to 5050, 5080.
• Below 4986, correction will continue up to 4950,4930. Below 4930, medium term up trend will also terminate.
• In the medium term, Nifty is in up trend with targets of 5160, 5230, 5330. Below 4932, medium term up trend will also terminate.
• In the short term, Nifty is in corrective down move with possible targets of 4960, 4930, 4890, 4838.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty December future premium turned in to discount of 13 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 96 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.54 cr)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.26.
• 4800 puts had open interest of 31 lacs (+24%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 36 lacs (+141%), so4800 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 28.3, increased by 14% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 6/43. (Bearish)

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 24

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 62.3 (+1.7%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5100.
• Nifty made high and low of 5113 and 5052 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4932.
• Trading above 5113, up move will continue up to 5130, 5160.
• Below 5080, correction will be seen up to 5060, 5040, 5010.
• In the medium term Nifty is in medium term up trend with targets of 5160, 5230, 5330.
• In the short term, Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5042 (achieved), 5080 (achieved), 5150.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium decreased to 5 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 4 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 3.10 cr)
• Nifty calls shed 19 lacs and puts added 5 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.60.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 52 lacs (-1%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 36 lacs (-10%), so 5000 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.69, increased by 0.2% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 29/21. (Bullish)

Monday, November 23, 2009

new blog on woman's health

all are invited to visit my new blog on woman's health.

it is for patient education about gynec problems.

the link is "http://niftydoctor-woman-health.blogspot.com/"

Thursday, November 19, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 19

TECHNICAL CUES-------
• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 62.2 (- 0.8%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5053.
• Nifty made high and low of 5079 and 5041 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4924 and swing top is at 5079.
• Trading above 5079, up move will continue up to 5090, 5120, 5150.
• Below 5041, correction will be seen up to 5030, 5010, 4990.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5042 (achieved), 5080 (achieved), 5150.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium decreased to 0.3 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 9 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.99 cr)
• Nifty calls added 7 lacs and puts added 14 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.54.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 54 lacs (+13%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 43 lacs (+9%), so 5000 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.39, decreased by 1.5% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 27/23. (Bullish)

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 18

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 62.7 (- 0.4%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5080.
• Nifty made high and low of 5074 and 5010 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4924.
• Trading above 5074, up move will continue up to 5090, 5120, 5150.
• Below 5050, correction will be seen up to 5030, 5010, 4990.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5042 (achieved), 5080 (almost achieved), 5150.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium decreased to 1.1 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 10 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.9 cr)
• Nifty calls added 14 lacs and puts added 1.5 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.53.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 48 lacs (-1%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 39 lacs (+6%), so 5000 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.78, decreased by 4% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 23/27. (Bearish)

Monday, November 16, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 16




TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 61.3 (+ 2%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5039.
• Nifty made high and low of 5018 and 4943 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4924 and swing top is at 5017.
• Trading above 5020, up move will be seen up to 5040, 5055.
• Below 4970, correction will be seen up to 4940, 4920.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5042, 5080, 5150. Below 4924, short term uptrend will be terminated.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium increased to 4 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 11 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.98 cr)
• Nifty calls shed 2.5 lacs and puts added 27 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.56.
• 4900 puts had open interest of 56 lacs (+ 17%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 33 lacs (+3%), so 4900 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 29.09, decreased by 2% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 33/17. (Bullish)

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 12



TECHNICAL CUES-------

• Nifty made high and low of 5017 and 4870 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4860.
• Trading above 5017, up move will continue up to 5042, 5055, 5080.
• Below 4950, correction will be seen up to 4920, 4890.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term, Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5042, 5080, 5150.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future discount converted in to premium of 6 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 9 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.89 cr)
• Nifty calls shed 9 lacs and puts added 88 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.56.
• 4900 puts had open interest of 50 lacs (+82%) and 5000 calls had open interest of 36 lacs (-12%), so 4900 and 5000 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 28.96, decreased by 3.6% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 47/3. (Bullish)

*** To view call performance of the E-mail service,
visit the blog at
www.niftydoctor-calls.blogspot.com

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 11



DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium converted in to discount of 4.5 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 13 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.80 cr)
• Nifty calls added 28 lacs and puts shed 0.5 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.34.
• 4700 puts had open interest of 57 lacs (+1%) and 4900 calls had open interest of 45 lacs (+36%), so 4700 and 4900 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 30.06, increased by 4% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 14/35. (Bearish)

CUES FOR NOV 10



TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 60.66 (+4%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 4956.
• Nifty made high and low of 4905 and 4790 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4538 and swing top is at 5055.
• Trading above 4905, up move will continue up to 4940, 4970.
• Below 4860, correction will be seen up to 4830, 4790, 4760.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term Nifty is in corrective up move with targets of 4780 (achieved), 4860(achieved). Above 4860, targets for corrective up move will be 4940, 4970.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future discount converted in to premium of 5 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 10 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.93 cr)
• Nifty calls shed 15 lacs and puts added 50 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.42.
• 4800 puts had open interest of 48 lacs (+62%) and 5000 calls had open interest of 33 lacs (-2%), so 4800 and 5000 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 28.92, decreased by 0.4% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is 44/6. (Bullish)

Monday, November 9, 2009

NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE



--there is negative divergence in macd and rsi in 5 day chart.
--sensex seems to be in rising wedge.
--longs need to be carefull now.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

CUES FOR NOV 9



TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 58.11 (+0.4%)
• SGX Nifty was trading around 4770.
• Nifty made high and low of 4836 and 4765 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4538 and swing top is at 5055.
• Trading above 4836, up move will continue up to 4860, 4880.
• Below 4765, correction will be seen up to 4730, 4700.
• In the medium term Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 4700(achieved), 4550(achieved), 4400.
• In the short term Nifty is in corrective up move with targets of 4780 (achieved), 4860.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty November future premium converted in to discount of 6 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 5 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.83 cr)
• Nifty calls added 10 lacs and puts added 15 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.28.
• 4600 puts had open interest of 58 lacs (+18%) and 4900 calls had open interest of 42 lacs (+10%), so 4600 and 4900 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 29.04, decreased by 2% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 32/18. (Bullish)

Monday, October 26, 2009

CUES FOR OCT 26

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• MSCI India Index ETN (INP) closed at 60.33 (-1.3%)
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5012.
• Nifty made high and low of 5055 and 4983 on last trading day.
• Last swing bottom is at 4968 and swing top is at 5182.
• Trading above 5020, up move will be seen up to 5050, 5070.
• Below 4983, correction will be seen up to 4968. Below 4968, Nifty will be in down trend with targets of 4934, 4905, 4880, 4850.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100(achieved), 5300. Below 4934, medium term uptrend will be terminated.
• Nifty is in corrective down move with targets of 5061(achieved), 5034(achieved), 5010(achieved), 4980(achieved). Below 4968, Nifty will be in short term down trend with targets of 4934, 4905, 4880, 4850.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty October future premium increased to 11 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 2 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.69 cr)
• Nifty calls added 6 lacs and puts shed 3 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.29.
• 4900 puts had open interest of 53 lacs (-13%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 56 lacs (+4%), so 4900 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 24.49, decreased by 4% suggests stability. (Bullish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 28/22. (Bullish)

Friday, October 23, 2009

FUND FLOW UPDATE FOR OCTOBER SERIES



--FIIs are buyers only in cash segment in current month which also includes QIP, IPO figures.
--FIIs are net sellars in index and stock futures suggest that they are hedged in there position in market.
--looking to the data, investors need to be cautious in short term.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

CUES FOR OCT 22



TECHNICAL CUES-------

• Nifty made high and low of 5117 and 5051 on last trading day.
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5040.
• Last swing top is at 5182.
• Trading above 5090, up move will be seen up to 5110, 5140.
• Below 5051, correction will continue up to 5034, 5010, 4980.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100(achieved), 5300. Below 4934, medium term uptrend will be terminated.
• Nifty is now in corrective down move with targets of 5061(achieved), 5034, 5010, 4980.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty October future discount converted in to premium of 7 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest increased by 3 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.68 cr)
• Nifty calls added 12 lacs and puts shed 18 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.32.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 43 lacs (-8%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 54 lacs (+12%), so 5000 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.78, increased by 0.4% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 13/37. (Bearish)

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

CUES FOR OCT 21

TECHNICAL CUES-------

• Nifty made high and low of 5182 and 5103 on last trading day.
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5109.
• Last swing bottom is at 5077 and swing top is at 5182.
• Trading above 5130, up move will be seen up to 5160, 5190, 5210.
• Below 5103, correction will be seen up to 5090, 5077. Below 5077 short term uptrend will be terminated.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100(achieved), 5300.
• Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5160(achieved), 5190(achieved), 5210.

DERIVATIVE CUES----

• Nifty October future discount decreased to 10 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
• Nifty open interest decreased by 5 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.65 cr)
• Nifty calls added 26 lacs and puts shed 15 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
• Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.38.
• 5000 puts had open interest of 46 lacs (-10%) and 5200 calls had open interest of 48 lacs (+13%), so 5000 and 5200 will be important levels to watch for.
• India VIX closed at 26.69, increased by 2% suggests instability. (Bearish)
• In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 17/33. (Bearish)

Saturday, October 17, 2009

HAPPY DIWALI


Dear viwers,

Wish you Happy Diwali and Prosperous and Profitable New Year.

-Dr.Jignesh Shah.


India is a country that is culturally so rich that it celebrates one or the other festival almost every month. And most of these festivals have their origin in Indian Mythology and there is very interesting stories about them. It is the spiritual and religious richness in India that each festival is related to some or other deity. One of such festivals is the 'festival of lights', Deepawali. Dipavali is the Indian festival that brings a series of festivals with it. One after another it gives a chance to celebrate five festivals together.

Return of Shri Ram Chandra to Ayodhyaa

The most famous legend behind the celebrations of diwali is about the prince of Ayodhya Nagri, Lord Shri Ram Chandra. The story goes like the king of Lanka, Ravan kidnapped Ram Chandra's wife, Sita from the jungle where they were staying as per the instructions of King Dashratha, father of Ram Chandra. Then Ram Chandra attacked Lanka and killed Ravan and released Sita from imprisonment. He returned to Ayodhyaa with his wife Sita and younger brother Lakshamana after fourteen years. Therefore the people of Ayodhyaa decorated their homes as well as the city of Ayodhyaa by lighting tiny diyas all over in order to welcome their beloved prince Shri Ram Chandra and Devi Sita.

Incarnation of Goddess Lakshmi

On the auspicious new moon day, which is 'Amavasyaa' of the Hindi month of Kartik the Goddess of wealth and prosperity, Lakshmi was incarnated. She appeared during the churning of the ocean, which is known as 'Samudra Manthan', by the demons on one side and 'Devataas' on the other side. Therefore the worship of Goddess Lakshmi, the Lakshmi Pujan, on the day of Divali became a tradition.

Lord Krishna Destroyed Demon Narakasur

One famous story behind the celebrations of Diwali is about the demon king Narakasur who was ruler of Pragjyotishpur, a province to the South of Nepal. During a war he defeated Lord Indra and snatched away the magnificent earrings of Mother Goddess Aditi who was not only the ruler of Suraloka but also a relative of Lord Krishna's wife, Satyabhama. Narakasur also imprisoned sixteen thousand daughters of Gods and saints in his harem. With the support of Lord Krishna Satyabhama defeated Narakasur and released all the women from his harem and also restored the magnificent earrings of Mother Goddess Aditi.

The Return of the Pandavas

The great Hindu epic 'Mahabharata' has another interesting story related to the 'Kartik Amavasyaa'. The story reads that 'the Pandavas', the five brothers Yudhishthhira, Bhima, Arjuna, Nakula and Sahdeva, were sentenced thirteen years banishment as a result of their defeat against 'the Kauravas', Duryodhana and his ninety nine brothers, at the game of dice. Therefore they spent thirteen years in the jungles and returned to their kingdom on the day of 'Kartik Amavasyaa'. On their return the people of their kingdom welcomed the Pandavas by celebrating the event by lighting the earthen lamps all over in their city.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

RE-START OF E-MAIL SERVICE FOR TRADERS

Dear viewers,

Happy to announce that my E-mail service will resume from 30th October.

Charges will remain as follows--
-Rs.1200 for one month.
-Rs.2100 for two months.

Those who wish to take free trial of E-mail service up to 29th October (DIWALI GIFT)can send there request by e-mail to me on drjcshah123@yahoo.com

Thanks.
-Dr.Jignesh Shah

For details visit the page at
http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/03/e-mail-news-letter-service.html

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

CUES FOR OCT 7

TECHNICAL CUES---

• Nifty made high and low of 5035 and 4921 yesterday.
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5060.
• Last swing bottom is at 4921 and swing top is at 5110.
• Trading above 5035, up move will resume up to 5070, 5110. Above 5110 ‘blow out’ phase(terminal phase) in the market will be seen and utilize that phase to offload long positions in market.
• Below 5000, correction will be seen up to 4970, 4940.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100(achieved), 5300.
• Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5090(achieved), 5120(almost achieved), 5150, 5200.

DERIVATIVE CUES---

--Nifty October future premium increased to 11 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest decreased by 1 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.48 cr)
--Nifty calls added 6 lacs and puts added 11 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.35.
--4900 puts had open interest of 64 lacs (+7%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 36 lacs (-2%), so 4900 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 27.75, decreased by 3% suggests stability. (Bullish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 30/20. (Bullish)

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

CUES FOR OCT 6

• Nifty made high and low of 5076 and 4992 yesterday.
• SGX Nifty is trading around 5032.
• Last swing bottom is at 4904 and swing top is at 5110.
• Trading above 5050, up move will be seen up to 5080, 5110.
• Below 4992, correction will continue up to 4980, 4945.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100(achieved), 5300.
• Nifty is in short term uptrend with targets of 5090(achieved), 5120(almost achieved), 5150, 5200.

--Nifty October future discount converted in to premium of 5 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest decreased by 6 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.49 cr)
--Nifty calls added 23 lacs and puts added 17 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.35.
--4900 puts had open interest of 60 lacs (+3%) and 5100 calls had open interest of 37 lacs (+32%), so 4900 and 5100 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 28.72, increased by 13% suggests instability. (Bearish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 11/39. (Bearish)

Friday, September 25, 2009

NIFTY IN TRIANGLE



--Nifty is currently in correction to the uptrend.
--correction seems to be in triangle.
--any breakout from the triangle will be a big trading opportunity.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

blog update

this is to inform you all that blog will not be updated for next few days.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

RECTANGLE TRADING



--AFTER GAP UP OPENING NIFTY TRADED SIDEWAY IN A RECTANGLEAND THEN GOOD BREAKOUT OCCURS FROM IT.

--A-4920, B-4941, C-4927, D-4949, E-4931.

--WAVE E CONSUMED 9 FIVE MINUTE CANDLES WHICH WAS TAKEN OUT BY JUST 2 CANDLES AND THAT IS ''BULL POWER''.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

CUES FOR SEPTEMBER 16

TECHNICAL CUES---

• Nifty made high and low of 4899 and 4808 yesterday.
• SGX Nifty is trading around 4942.
• Last swing bottom is at 4786.
• Trading above 4899, up move will be seen up to 4950, 4980.
• Below 4860, weakness will be seen up to 4840, 4810, 4780.
• Currently Nifty is in uptrend (medium term) with targets of 4900(achieved), 5100, 5300.
• Nifty is in short term uptrend also with remaining targets of 4950, 4980.

DERIVATIVE CUES--

--Nifty September future premium decreased to 8 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
--Nifty open interest increased by 10 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 3.24 cr)
--Nifty calls shed 8 lacs and puts added 47 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.59.
--4800 puts had open interest of 49 lacs (+33%) and 5000 calls had open interest of 41 lacs (+4%), so 4800 and 5000 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 30.20, decreased by 4.6% suggests stability. (Bullish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 45/5. (Bullish)

Friday, September 11, 2009

BULL POWER


***factors favouring bulls---
--downward trendline broken in nifty.
--macd shows positive divergence.
--downward trendline broken in rsi also.





--today in secong part of the day bulls were having more power then bears.
--from 4832 to 4791, nifty consumed almost 15 candles but 4832 was taken out from 4791 in just 9 candles suggesting of the bull power.
--now interesting part to note is that from 4846 to 4791 nifty cosumes almost 38 candles.
--so if 4846 is taken out on monday before 11 A.M. then whole correction will be over and nifty will resume its uptrend again.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

BEAR POWER



--NIFTY CONSUMED 21 FIVE MINUTE CANDLES FROM 4819 TO 4861.
--AND CONSUMED ONLY 6 CANDLES FROM 4861 TO BELOW 4819.
--THIS SUGGESTS THAT BEARS WERE IN MORE POWER THEN BULLS TODAY.
--THUS MARKET CAN CORRECT MORE ALSO.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

nifty daily chart



--RSI and NIFTY had given a breakout from a triangle suggests more bullishness ahead.

Friday, September 4, 2009

triangle breakout


--nifty gave breakout from the triangle.
--updates were given live for same on twittwr at http://twitter.com/niftydoctor

Monday, August 31, 2009

CUES FOR AUGUST 31


********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--

---Ideal Strategy- HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4652.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html
---The positional strategy is based on my mechanical trading system.


********CUES--

--Nifty September future premium decreased to 5.4 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
--Nifty open interest increased by 14 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.47 cr)
--Nifty calls added 33 lacs and puts added 45 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.20.
--4600 puts had open interest of 29 lacs (+36%) and 4800 calls had open interest of 24 lacs (+35%), so 4600 and 4800 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 33.27, decreased by 4.5% suggests stability. (Bullish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 34/16. (Bullish)

Sunday, August 30, 2009

TRADING PLAN AND PERFECT TRADE ENTRY AND EXIT

What is a trading plan?
Contrary to popular belief, you do not need to know where the market will top and bottom to make money in the markets. In fact, that is where most people go wrong.
The best traders in the world realise that neither they nor anyone else knows what is going to happen. Sure, everyone can point out tops and bottoms after the fact, but no matter what anyone tells you or tries to sell you, no one can pick tops and bottoms consistently before the fact.
So how do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?
Successful trading is not dissimilar to any other successful business. Every successful business has a business plan and so do successful traders.You may have already realised this from the previous chapter, when I mentioned that successful traders have a systematic way they approach the market.
Plan your way to success
Have you ever really thought about why companies like McDonald’s are so successful? It’s certainly not the taste of their burgers.
It’s because they follow a well-tested methodology the world over. The staff in Sydney is following the same regimen as the staff in Singapore. The burgers in Auckland are made the same way as they are in Athens. We can all learn a lot from this approach.
To be successful, you need to treat your trading like you would any other small business. If you were about to invest $50,000–$100,000 to start up a café or a lawn-mowing service, wouldn’t you research the market carefully first? Wouldn’t you write up a business plan? Of course you would.
Trading should be treated the same way – given the same respect if you like.
Your trading plan
A trader’s business plan is known as a trading plan – it defines her approach to trading. A properly constructed trading system will leave no room for human judgement because it will define your plan, given any circumstances that may arise. It is a distinct set of rules that will instruct the trader what should be done and when to do it.
The importance of a trading plan cannot be overstated. Without a consistent set of guiding principles to govern your trading decisions, you will most likely hop from one trade to the next, impelled by emotions. By not having a plan, you are planning to fail.
Proof it works
All successful traders that I have come in contact with have written down their exact trading methodology, at one point or another.
Have you ever heard the story about one of the most famous system traders of all time, Richard Dennis? In mid-1983 Dennis was having an ongoing dispute with his long-time friend Bill Eckhardt about whether great traders are born or made.
Dennis believed that trading could be broken down into a set of rules that could be passed on to others. On the other hand, Eckhardt believed trading had more to do with innate instincts and that this skill comes naturally.
In order to settle the matter, Dennis suggested they recruit and train some traders and give them actual accounts to trade with to see who was right.
To cut a long story short, Dennis taught his trading methodology to a group of students he named ‘The Turtle Traders.’ This group of traders later became some of the most successful traders of all time, proving that a thought-out and well-documented trading plan is the key to success.
A trading plan is simply a set of rules that addresses every aspect of a trade such as entry and exit conditions and money management. Regardless of how complex it may be, a good test for your trading plan is to hand it to someone else to read thoroughly and then see if they have any questions about it.
If they can easily understand all the rules and requirements of your strategy with little to no questions, then you have compiled a sound trading plan.
*Side Note: It must be recognized that Dennis’ trading method isn’t suited to everyone, with over 60% of all trades taken by the system resulting in a loss. It wasn’t the system that made these traders so successful, it was that Dennis showed them the importance of having a plan and following it
Write it down
Why is it so important to write your trading plan down? Something magical happens when you commit it to paper and, believe it or not, this will be one of the most important things you can do in your endeavour to becoming a successful trader.
When you take time to sit down and spell out how you perceive the markets, you are beginning to take responsibility. If the market does not behave according to what you wrote, the only conclusion you can arrive at is that your perception is wrong. Accepting that possibility is a huge step towards maturing as a trader.
When you write down how you are going to enter a trade, based on certain events, you are eliminating any possibility of placing the responsibility on anything else but yourself. Now when something goes wrong, as it inevitably will when you’re learning a new skill, you’re the one to fix it!
Trading plan format
Again – to draw on the business plan analogy – just as there is a standard format for designing any business plan, there is also a format for designing a trading plan.
There are three major components within any trading plan: entry, exits and money management rules. Here’s a quick summary.
Tested entry rules. Entry rules should be a precise set of rules that a tradable instrument must pass before you enter a trade. Entry rules should be simple, direct, and leave no room for human judgement.
Tested exit rules. Entering a trade is all to no avail if you do not know when to exit your position. Having a set of rules that define your exit is equally as important as a set that defines your entry.
Strict money management rules. Perhaps the most important and least addressed aspect of trading is the ability to manage risk. A profitable trader is one who has the ability to manage the risks associated with trading. This is achieved with strict money management rules.
While simple in their explanation, these three components together will ensure your trading success. In the chapters that follow, we will go into these in more detail and you will work through a process to design each component.


The perfect trade entry
Every trader needs a trade entry system. In chapter 3 we covered the first fundamental step of trading, that is, to choose the market in which you want to trade. But, within each market, there is a plethora of trading opportunities to choose from – I call this the universe of securities. So how do you choose from this vast universe? Simple. Predefine your entry rules.
Trade entry rules are a stringent set of conditions that you develop, document and then apply, to decide when you are going to enter a trade. It doesn’t matter what securities you’re trading, you just need a consistent method of entry. Like sifting through a bucket of sand trying to find pieces of gold, the same approach is used to reduce your universe of securities to a shortlist of those that meet your criteria.
Developing your trade entry rules
As in all aspects of trading, there are many theories on trade entry and how to exit trades. I believe the best way to approach entries should be simple, direct and leave nothing to human judgement.
This is contrary to the philosophy of many traders who buy stocks based on media reports, ‘expert’ opinion, rumours and/or gut feel. The good news is that by acting contrarily, you will do what most traders never do… make a profit.
Reinventing the wheel
I spent a lot of time in chapter 3 telling you why you shouldn’t copycat someone else’s system, but that’s not to say you can’t take elements of a proven trading plan and stitch them together into something that will suit your personality.
Let’s revisit the example of Richard Dennis and his Turtles. Dennis’ protégés were successful because they were under his direction at all times. Every trade was heavily scrutinised and made according to his strict rules. The students had to follow these rules or be dropped from the project.
The fear of loss forced the traders to follow the system no matter what. In the real world, most people would not have the discipline to do this. And nor should they; it wasn’t designed for them.
Furthermore, the Turtles were trading with someone else’s money. When it’s your own money on the table, you need to be completely comfortable with the decisions you make, and you can’t do that unless your system suits your personality.
Dennis’ students went on to become successful traders in their own right because they learnt discipline from their mentor, not because they continued to trade his system out of the box. They adapted it to suit themselves. And that’s what you should do.
Think of it this way: how many people do you know who have stayed in a job or field of work just because it’s what they’re used to? They may not love it, but they persist just the same.Maybe you’re one of those people. But, while these people might be able to do that job with their eyes closed, they will never excel at it if they’re not passionate about it. Their heart needs to be in it.
Trading is the same. If you’re not 100% behind your trading system, chances are you won’t be able to stick to it, and if you can’t stick to your system, you will never reap the benefits you are hoping for.
Keeping trade entry rules in perspective
Most traders believe the key to success is being able to pick the bottom of the market. This is why 99% of traders spend most of their time fidgeting with the entry; they are looking for that elusive secret, That one setup that will ensure ongoing success.
But let me tell you from experience – that setup rule doesn’t exist. And, in actual fact, it’s not that important. Spending countless hours optimising your trade entry rules, trying to find that ‘perfect’ indicator, can actually do more harm than good. Over optimisation based on historical data actually decreases the profitability of your trading system when trading in real-time. Typically, the more you optimise, the less robust your system tends to be.
Remember Tharp’s chart? (refer to chapter 2). He said that the trading system, which includes your trade entry rules, accounts for only 10% of what it takes to be a successful trader. That means, there is another 90% of ‘stuff’ you should be concentrating on, such as money management (discussed in chapter 6).
Amazingly, a system can have a very random entry signal and still be profitable as long as money management is in place. Take the following real-life example from Tharp.
Example:
Tom Basso designed a simple, random-entry trading system … We determined the volatility of the market by a 10-day exponential moving average of the average true range. Our initial stop was three times that volatility reading.
Once entry occurred by a coin flip, the same three-times-volatility stop was trailed from the close. However, the stop could only move in our favor. Thus, the stop moved closer whenever the markets moved in our favor or whenever volatility shrank. We also used a 1% risk model for our position-sizing system…
We ran it on 10 markets. And it was always, in each market, either long or short depending upon a coin flip… It made money 100% of the time when a simple 1% risk money management system was added… The system had a [trade success] reliability of 38%, which is about average for a trend-following system.
Source: Tharp V, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedomwww.ultimate-trading-systems.com/tywtff
Although a little convoluted in its explanation, this example illustrates that an entry strategy as simple as a coin toss can turn solid profits.Most traders spin their wheels trying to get in at the ‘best’ price, even though this is not where the money is made.
So what’s the take-home rule here? It is easier to copycat your way to success than to try to re-invent the wheel. According to Anthony Robbins, the way to become as healthy as possible is to find the healthiest person you know, ask them how they do it and copy them.
Similarly, the way to select your trade entry rules is to find the best, proven entry system you can for your selected market and model your entry on that system..Sure, you can waste months and spend thousands of dollars testing different methods, but why put yourself through that? Would you rather be a wealthy copycat or a broke trailblazer?
Trading is one of the few industries where people actively share their methods. In other areas of business, people tend to keep their success secrets to themselves; in trading, there are innumerable proven systems and models out there that you can access.Admittedly, you have to pay for most of them, but they are readily available.
So now you have two choices: you can design your own trade entry rules (which includes appropriate back testing) or you can apply a ready-made entry system, confident that someone else has done all the hard work for you.
The better choice seems obvious to me, but I’m not here to make your decisions for you. I’m here to pass on as much information as I can and help set you on a course that will suit your situation.
Going it alone
If you have decided to give it a go yourself, here are a few good rules of thumb to follow. Your trade entry rules should address each of the following:
trend
liquidity
volatility
Let’s look at these in more detail.
Trend
The cornerstone of technical analysis is the trend. Remember ‘the trend is your friend’ and you always want to trade with it, not against it. I believe this to be the most critical component of any trade entry system. You need a way to measure the trend.
There are many ways to identify trends, and as with most things in trading, there’s more than one way to skin a cat. The key is to have a method in place.One of my preferred methods for identifying trending securities is to find securities trading at their recent highs.That is to say, the highest high price must have been achieved in the past x number of days (where x is the variable depending on the timeframe you are trading). The longer the timeframe, typically the higher the variable.
Example:
If I were to trade a medium to longer term approach I might want the highest high price in the past 200 days to have occurred in the past 20 days.I use a charting package called MetaStock (covered in more detail in chapter 8).
Using MetaStock, the formula would look like:HHVBars(H,200) <>Liquidity
Liquidity is an important determinant because you want to be trading securities that you can buy and sell quickly and without moving the market.You never want to be caught in a position where you want out but there’s no one to buy.
With liquid instruments, such as the forex market that trades billions of dollars each day, trades are happening constantly, so your activity alone will not move the market. In short, avoid illiquid securities.
Example:
Depending on the size of your float, you might want the average daily trade volume to be greater than $400,000. This could be achieved by requiring that:
The 21-day average of volume multiplied by the closing price be greater than $400,000.
Using MetaStock the formula would look like:Mov(v,21,s)*C > 400000
Volatility
Volatility is simply a measurement of how much a security moves. Not whether it goes up or down, just how much it fluctuates.It is important to trade securities that move enough for you to make a profit. Of course you don’t want securities that are so volatile you can’t get to sleep at night.
On the other hand, you don’t want something that moves at such a snail’s pace that it is not delivering the returns you are after.One of my favourite ways to identify volatility is using the ATR method,[1] which indicates how much a security will move, on average, over a certain period.
Here’s how I might use this method. A $10 security might have moved fifty cents per day on average over the past 21 days. I can simply divide this value by the price of the security to calculate the average percentage movement of a security over the past 21 days. With this value, I can stipulate a minimum and maximum volatility value.
Example:
If I were a reasonably conservative trader I might want a security to trade between a band of 1.5–6%. That is to say, I want the ATR divided by the average closing price, over the past 21 days, to be greater than 1.5% and less than 6%.
Using MetaStock, the formula would look like:ATR(21)/Mov(C,21,S)*100 > 1.5 andATR(21)/Mov(C,21,S)*100 <>Adapting a proven system
If you’ve decided adapting a ready-made and tested system is best – I’ve done the hard work for you. I have hand-picked the best systems for your chosen market.These courses will not only educate you about the market you choose but they also provide you with the exact trade entry rules you need to include in your trading plan.
Simply follow the link to your selected market.
Stocks – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/stocks
Options – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/options
Futures/commodities – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/futures
Forex – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex
Documenting your entry
Finally, as with everything we do, it’s important to document your new trade entry rules. As I’ve said, a good set of entry rules are simple, direct and leave no room for human judgement.Take the trade entry rules discovered through your own research or from your selected program and write out exactly how you will enter a position.This simple act of documentation puts you among the top 10% of traders.
Actions
If you have decided to develop your own system from scratch, plan your entry criteria making sure to do an appropriate amount of back testing – documenting everything.
If you’re looking for a ready-made entry system to get you started, get yourself the system that corresponds to the market you have decided to trade in:
Stocks – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/stocksOptions – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/optionsFutures/commodities – http://ultimate-trading-systems.com/futuresForex – www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex
Still not sure what to trade? Purchase Triple Your Trading Profits – This course shows you how to select a market that’s right for you. www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/tytp

The perfect trade exit: profit management
Identifying a good trading opportunity and setting your maximum loss is all to no avail if you don’t know how you’re going to. Typically, in most trading books, trade exit is covered in the discussion on risk management.
To me, profitable exits deserves its own category, more aptly called profit management. Before you enter a trade, you should always know how you will exit it.
There are at least two possible trade exits for every trade:
How you will exit a losing trade (defined in the previous chapter with the use of initial stops)
How you will exit a profitable trade.
Both stops must be written down before you enter the trade – mental stops don’t count! Having these two exits pre-defined ensures you adhere to the age-old rule of trading: let your profits run and cut your losses short.
Why stops are so important
As human beings, we are hardwired to fail as traders. What we need to do to be profitable traders really is counter intuitive.
Here’s what I mean.
The intuitive reaction when a trade goes against you is to hold on until it turns around.In so many other areas of our lives we are taught to be patient and hang on… All good things come to those who wait. But in trading it’s different.
Unfortunately, and most likely, if you hang on, these losses will be compounded as time passes. The counter intuitive reaction is to cut losses short and move onto the next trade.Similarly, the intuitive reaction to a trade turning profitable is to sell.
Our human nature is to crystallise this profitable trade and come out a ‘winner’. Clearly, this is in direct conflict to the rule of letting your profits run.The counter intuitive (and correct) response is to let your profits run.
Trailing stops
So how do you know when to implement your trade exit plan? By using a trailing stop.
In short, trailing stops are typically set in a very similar method to your initial stops, that is, based on technicals, indicators and/or percentages.The only real difference is the price at which you calculate.
Your initial stop is calculated from your entry price whereas your trailing stop is calculated from the highest price since entry. In this way, this stop ‘trails’ price… as price moves up, so too does your stop.
Trailing stops will allow you to ride the trend for longer, while locking in profits should the trend reach its end.The trick is to find the balance between giving your trade enough room to move, while also having the stop tight enough to not give back too much profit.
Again, to echo what was said in the previous chapter: Generally, short-term traders will set their stops closer to the price, while longer term traders tend to give their trades a little more room to move.
My preferred stop
Despite the fact I always say it doesn’t matter so much what you choose – the important thing is just to have something in place, I’m still often asked what method I use for setting my stops.
I personally like a stop I call the ‘LL stop’.
The LL stop looks for the lowest low (LL) in the past x number of periods, where x is set based on the style of the system I’m trading. I then set my stop one to two points below this point.For example, here’s how I define this in one of my short–medium-term trading systems.
My initial stop is set to be the lowest low (in price) over the past 21 days. As the trade progresses and my trailing stop kicks in, I look for the lowest low in the past 21 days as calculated from the current price.
It’s a great little method, since I find it not only respects a security’s volatility (setting the stop wider or tighter based on price action) but it also has a great knack for finding support lines and setting your stops one to two points below.
Setting your exits
Think of setting your trade exits as an ejector seat when things go wrong and a seatbelt to strap you in when things go right. As with entry conditions, exits should be precisely defined and 100% mechanical, with no room for emotional intervention.
Part of becoming an experienced trader is not only learning the markets and developing a discipline for sticking to your strategy, but also preparing yourself to take a loss.
Once you start trading, you will learn to not get so attached to individual trades – not to sweat the small stuff. You will be better able to see the big picture and see how small losses are a real and unavoidable part of any successful trader’s system.
You are now ready to document your trade exit rules. By documenting your trade exit rules you have just put yourself among the top 1% of traders.

from
Source: Tharp V, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/tywtff

Thursday, August 27, 2009

CUES FOR AUGUST 28


*****Nifty is trading in narrow range since 2 days so expansion of the range is likely on 28th August.
********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--

---Ideal Strategy- HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4629.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html
---The positional strategy is based on my mechanical trading system.

********CUES--

--Nifty September future premium increased to 9.6 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest decreased by 52 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.33 cr)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.18.
--4600 puts had open interest of 22 lacs (+73%) and 4900 calls had open interest of 26 lacs (+26%), so 4600 and 4900 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 34.84, decreased by 4% suggests stability. (Bullish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 26/24. (Bullish)

----INDIA VIX support line broken so chances of nifty going above 4730 are high.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

NIFTY IN ASCENDING TRIANGLE


---NIFTY IS TRADING IN AN ASCENDING TRIANGLE. (RISING WEDGE)
---NOW THE RANGE HAS REDUCED TO 4640-4680.
--ANY BREAKOUT FROM TRIANGLE (UP OR DOWN) WILL BE GOOD TRADING OPPORTUNITY.

CUES FOR AUGUST 25

********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--

---Ideal Strategy- HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4444.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html
---The positional strategy is based on my mechanical trading system.

********CUES--

--Nifty August future premium increased to 9 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest increased by 2 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.78 cr)
--Nifty calls shed 18 lacs and puts added 35 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.22.
--4600 puts had open interest of 35 lacs (+93%) and 4700 calls had open interest of 42 lacs (+4%), so 4600 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 63.58, increased by 65% suggests instability. (Bearish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 47/3. (Bullish)

Monday, August 24, 2009

CUES FOR AUGUST 24

********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--

---Ideal Strategy- INITIATE LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4387.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html
---The positional strategy is based on my mechanical trading system.

********CUES--

--Nifty August future premium increased to 7 points so cost of carry increased. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest increased by 6 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.76 cr)
--Nifty calls shed 25 lacs and puts added 20 lacs in open interest. (Bullish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.09.
--4500 puts had open interest of 40 lacs (+21%) and 4700 calls had open interest of 40 lacs (-9%), so 4500 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 38.51, increased by 4% suggests instability. (Bearish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 46/4. (Bullish)

Sunday, August 23, 2009

WHY DO TRADERS FAIL?

Why Do Traders Fail?
by Jeffrey Kennedy,
Elliott Wave International August 7, 2009
I think that, as a general rule, traders fail 95% of the time, regardless of age, race, gender or nationality. The task at hand could be as simple as learning to ride a bike for the first time or as complex as mapping the human genome. Ultimate success in any enterprise requires that we accept failure along the way as a constant companion in our everyday lives.
People fail because they use inadequate systems. In other words, when traders fail, it’s primarily because they follow faulty trading systems – or that they follow no system at all.So what is the right system to follow as a trader?
To answer this question, I offer you what the trader who broke the all-time real-money profit record in the 1984 United States Trading Championship offered me. He told me that a successful trader needs five essentials:

1. A Method

You must have a method that is objectively definable. This method should be thought out to the extent that if someone asks how you make decisions to trade, you can quickly and easily explain. Possibly even more important, if the same question is asked again in six months, your answer will be the same. This is not to say that the method cannot be altered or improved; it must, however, be developed as a totality before implementing it.

2. The Discipline to Follow Your Method

‘Discipline to follow the method’ is so widely understood by true professionals that among them it almost sounds like a cliché. Nevertheless, it is such an important cliché that it cannot be ignored. Without discipline, you really have no method in the first place. And this is precisely why many consistently successful traders have military experience – the epitome of discipline.

3. Experience

It takes experience to succeed. Now, some people advocate “paper trading” as a learning tool. Paper trading is useful for testing methodologies, but it has no real value in learning about trading. In fact, it can be detrimental, because it imbues the novice with a false sense of security. “Knowing” that he has successfully paper-traded during the past six months, he believes that the next six months trading with real money will be no different. In fact, nothing could be farther from the truth. Why? Because the markets are not merely an intellectual exercise, they are an emotional one as well. Think about it, just because you are mechanically inclined and like to drive fast doesn’t mean you have the necessary skills to win the Daytona 500.

4. The Mental Fortitude to Accept that Losses Are Part of the Game

The biggest obstacle to successful trading is failing to recognize that losses are part of the game, and, further, that they must be accommodated. The perfect trading system that allows for only gains does not exist. Expecting, or even hoping for, perfection is a guarantee of failure. Trading is akin to batting in baseball. A player hitting .300 is good. A player hitting .400 is great. But even the great player fails to hit 60% of the time! Remember, you don’t have to be perfect to win in the markets. Practically speaking, this is why you also need an objective money management system.

5. The Mental Fortitude to Accept Huge Gains

To win the game, make sure that you understand why you’re in it. The big moves in markets come only once or twice a year. Those are the ones that will pay you for all the work, fear, sweat and aggravation of the previous 11 months or even 11 years. Don’t miss them for reasons other than those required by your objectively defined method. Don’t let yourself unconsciously define your normal range of profit and loss. If you do, when the big trade finally comes along, you will lack the self-esteem to take all it promises. By doing so, you abandon both method and discipline.

So who was the all-time real-money profit record holder who turned in a 444.4% return in a four-month period in 1984?
Answer: Robert Prechter ... and throughout the contest he stuck to his preferred method of analysis, the Wave Principle.

From
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/0807.html

Friday, August 21, 2009

NIFTY IN RECTANGLE


--NIFTY IN RECTANGLE.

---BREAKOUT WILL BE GOOD TRADING OPPORTUNITY.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

CUES FOR AUGUST 20


----for details of the waves understanding visit Ilango's blog at http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2009-08-19T09%3A21%3A00%2B05%3A30&max-results=3

********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--
---Ideal Strategy- NEUTRAL.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4367.
--- Do not hold short if closes above -4516.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html
---The positional strategy is based on my mechanical trading system.

********CUES--

--Nifty August future discount increased to 8 points so cost of carry decreased. (Bearish)
--Nifty open interest increased by 18 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.72 cr)
--Nifty calls added 21 lacs and puts added 16 lacs in open interest. (Bearish)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.97.
--4300 puts had open interest of 54 lacs (+7%) and 4500 calls had open interest of 41 lacs (+18%), so 4300 and 4500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 40.21, decreased by 11% suggests stability. (Bullish)
--In Nifty stocks, advance-decline ratio is at 8/42. (Bearish)