Wednesday, March 12, 2008


*****NIFTY*******12 MARCH
- nifty fut discount decreased to 3.5 points thus COC increased today.
- OI decreased by 19.3 lacs( short covering)
-NF make high-low of 4997-4855.
***FII DATA*******11 MARCH
-FII buy 641 cr index fut (total sell of 1266 cr in current series).
-OI of FII decreased by 20000 contracts ( short covering by fii on March 11.)
-this data from cnbc as sebi had not updated data of march 11
-put added 2 lacks and call added 3.84 lacks in OI today.
- Nifty open int PCR decreased to 0.98 and volume PCR decreased to 0.79.
********FUND FLOW*******11 MARCH
-FII net sell 172 cr in cash (total sell of 1736 cr in current series). net buy 318 cr (total buy of 174 cr in current series).
todays bullish opening gap was filled as nifty continued to come down during the day, so although closed higher than yday, but it made a gravestone kind of doji which might form a short term reversal, next candlestick may confirm it by making lower top.
just looking at bounce it also nearly retraced 61.8% of 5368-4620. this scenario suits wave completion of b of C and opens possibility of c of C to open down. total bigger C will be mild(less than magnitude of A), but if goes below 4245 then whatever bull rally comes after that will be limited to less than 6357.
on the other hand nifty is within falling channel after 4th feb, upper end of which is about 5300 and lower near 4600-4650.
i feel the pain will continue for some more days before the last real upmove begins, maybe some months later in the year nifty will find itself higher but one should be cautious at that time bcos a bigger correction might come after that.
-by senior tech analyst