CUES FOR MARCH 31

-------VIX closed at 40.25 breaking downward trendline. so volatility will be very high in coming days.

CUES-

--Nifty April future premium decreased to 10 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 19 lacs suggests long unwinding.
--Nifty call option added 26 lacs and put option added 29 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.48.
--2900 puts had open interest of 44 lacs, so it will be important level to watch for.
--implied volatility decreased by 100 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 40.25, increased by 8% suggests instability and uncertainity.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading negative.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2999. (up 4)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Neutral. (trade intraday only)

CUES FOR MARCH 30

CUES-

--Nifty April future discount converted to premium of 16 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 12 lacs suggests long addition.
--Nifty call option added 32 lacs and put option added 43 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.51.
--implied volatility increased by 100 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 37.14, increased by 1% suggests instability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading negative.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3079. (down 47)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2987. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

CUES FOR MARCH 27

---------Nifty is trading in a rectangle on closing basis since 6 months.
---------so level of 3150-3180 will be important resistance on closing basis.

---------India VIX closed at 36.93, up 33% suggests that volatility and uncertanty will be high in coming days.

CUES-

--Nifty April future premium converted to discount of 1 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 108 lacs suggests long unwinding.
--New series begins with Put-Call Ratio of 1.6.
--implied volatility increased suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 36.93, increased by 31% suggests instability and uncertainty.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3070. (up 6)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2940. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

CUES FOR MARCH 26

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 1.3 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 47 lacs suggests short addition.(nifty total open interest is of 4.76cr which is dangerous)
--Nifty call option added 15 lacs and put option added 29 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.82.
--implied volatility decreased by 500 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 28.18, decreased by 23% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading positive.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3004. (up 11)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2882. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

CUES FOR MARCH 25

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 1.05 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 22 lacs suggests long addition.(nifty total open interest is of 4.29cr which is dangerous)
--Nifty call option added 5 lacs and put option added 24 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.81.
--implied volatility increased by 400 basis points suggests uncertainty.
--India VIX closed at 36.85, decreased by 2% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2931. (up 15)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2832. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

CUES FOR MARCH 24

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 1.5 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 33 lacs suggests long addition.(nifty total open interest is of 4.07cr which is dangerous)
--Nifty call option shed 15 lacs and put option added 63 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.78.
--implied volatility increased by 700 basis points suggests uncertainty.
--India VIX closed at 37.63, increased by 8% suggests instability.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading strong.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2978. (up 33)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2784. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

CUES FOR MARCH 23

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 5 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 7 lacs suggests long addition.
--Nifty call option added 7 lacs and put option added 5 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.59.
--2700 puts had open interest of 76 lacs, so 2700 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility decreased by 200 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 34.86, decreased by 3% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading strong.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2847. (up 39)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2766. (Initiated at 2794)

CUES FOR MARCH 20

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 6 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 2 lacs suggests long addition.
--Nifty call option shed 0.3 lacs and put option added 13 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.61.
--2700 puts had open interest of 80 lacs, so 2700 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility increased by 100 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 35.98, decreased by 4% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2776. (down 24)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2754. (Initiated at 2794)

CUES FOR MARCH 19

-please note that Nifty is at strong resistance of around 2830.
-present uptrend is now 6 days old and since jan 2008, all upmoves had lasted for 6-7 days.
-today will be 7th day, so keep your exposure minimum.(trade light)
-all above is not an indication to go short also because shorting at top or buying at bottom is a job of expert or speculator and we are none of them.

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 15 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 7 lacs suggests short addition.
--Nifty call option added 15 lacs and put option added 37 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.58.
--2700 puts had open interest of 78 lacs, so 2700 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility increased by 50 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 38.19, decreased by 1% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2800. (UP 22)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold Long with closing stop loss at 2731. (Initiated at 2794)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

Trading diary for 18th march.

-Nifty was closed at-2757.
-Strategy for day was- neutral. (Long above 2794 close)
-Closing stop loss was at- 2686.
-Opening range (15 minutes) - 2797-2757.
-Break out- up
-10.10AM-3.00PM trading—long initiated.
-After 3.00 PM trading- no trade. (Trading above 2790)
-Carry forward- long.

CUES FOR MARCH 18

-----Nifty at ''make or break'' levels of 2806-2830.

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 6 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 6 lacs suggest short addition.
--Nifty call option added 12 lacs and put option added 30 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.55.
--2700 puts had open interest of 69 lacs, so 2700 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility increased by 50-100 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 38.47, increased by 5% suggests instability.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2779. (UP 24)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Neutral. ( Initiate long if closes above 2790 OR Initiate short if closes below 2710)
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

Trading diary for 17th march.

-Nifty was closed at-2777.
-Strategy for day was- initiate long.
-Closing stop loss was at- 2631.
-Opening range (15 minutes) - 2781-2767.
-Break out- down
-10.10AM-3.00PM trading—long avoided.
-After 3.00 PM trading- no trade.
-Carry forward- nothing.

CUES FOR MARCH 17

-------NIFTY AT MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL.......
watch closely levels of 2806-2830 in next few days.

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount remains at 3 points.
--Nifty open interest increased by 20 lacs.
--Nifty call option shed 12 lacs and put option added 39 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.52.
--2800 calls had open interest of 55 lacs, so 2800 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility increased by 100 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 36.64, increased by 3% suggests instability.
--US markets closed flat.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2780. (UP 4)

--Positional strategy for nifty—initiate long with closing stop loss of 2631.
Visit http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

Trading diary for 16th march.

-Nifty closed at-2719.
-Strategy for day was- initiate long.
-Closing stop loss at- 2582.
-Opening range (15 minutes) - 2737-2721.
-Break out- down
-10.10AM-3.00PM trading—long avoided.
-After 3.00 PM trading- no trade.
-Carry forward- nothing.

CUES FOR MARCH 16

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 3 points thus cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 5.6 lacs suggests short covering.
--Nifty call option shed 21 lacs and put option added 40 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.40.
--2500 put had open interest of 86 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.(similar OI build up was seen in October at 3800 put…..so be carefull)
--implied volatility decreased by 100 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 35.51, decreased by 10% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in green
--Asian markets trading strong.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2722. (UP 1)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Initiate long. (Initiated at 2719).
VISIT THE PAGE http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/01/trading-strategy-for-positional-calls.html

TRADE WITH TRADING SYSTEM

• Most successful traders use a mechanical trading system.
• This is no coincidence.
• A good mechanical trading system automates the entire process of trading.
• The system provides answers for each of the decisions a trader must make while trading.
• The system makes it easier for a trader to trade consistently because there are a set of rules which specifically define what should be done.
• The mechanics of trading is not left up to the judgment of the trader.
• If you know that your system makes money over the long run it is easier to take the signals and trade according to the system during periods of losses.
• If you are relying on your own judgment during trading you may find that you are fearful just when you should be bold and courageous when you should be cautious.
• If you have a mechanical trading system that works, and you follow it rigorously your trading will be consistent despite the inner emotional struggles that might come from a long series of losses, or a large profit.
• The confidence, consistency, and discipline that a thoroughly tested mechanical system affords is the key to many of the most profitable traders’ success.

FROM---
http://originalturtles.tradingblox.com/system.htm

nifty chart

medium term trend is down(reversal above 2830).
short term trend is up (reversal below 2620).

CUES FOR MARCH 13

------CURRENT SHORT TERM DOWNREND IS IN DANGER OF TERMINATION IF NIFTY TRADES AND CLOSES ABOVE 2640.

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 17 points thus cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 5 lacs suggests short covering.
--Nifty call option added 5 lacs and put option shed 4 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.25.
--2500 put had open interest of 86 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.(similar OI build up was seen in October at 3800 put…..so be carefull)
--implied volatility decreased by 200 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 39.38, decreased by 4% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in green
--Asian markets trading strong.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2673. (UP 89)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2632. (Initiated at 2674).

CUES FOR MARCH 12

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 25 points thus cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 12 lacs suggests short addition.
--Nifty call option added 38 lacs and put option added 45 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.27.
--2500 put had open interest of 103 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.(similar OI build up was seen in October at 3800 put…..so be carefull)
--implied volatility increased by 200-300 basis points suggests uncertainty.
--India VIX closed at 41, increased by 8% suggests instability.
--US markets closed flat but gained 5% in last two days.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2645. (UP 87)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2638. (Initiated at 2674).

CUES FOR MARCH 9

CUES-

--markets will be closed on Tuesday and Wednesday.
--Nifty March future discount decreased to 11.5 points thus cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 10 lacs suggests short covering.
--Nifty call option added 8 lacs and put option added 51 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.28.
--2500 put had open interest of 102 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.(similar OI build up was seen in October at 3800 put…..so be carefull)
--implied volatility decreased by 200 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 37.97, decreased by 8% suggests stability.
--US markets closed flat.
--Asian markets trading weak.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2575. (down 37)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2649. (Initiated at 2674).

E-MAIL NEWS LETTER SERVICE

Dear viewers,
We have started from 30th january E-mail newsletter services.

Current subscription charges are as follows-
-Rs.1200 for 30 days. (One month)
-Rs.2100 for 60 days. (Two months)
-Rs.3000 for 90 days. (Three months)
-charges will be non-refundable.
--for cash payment add Rs.45 to the charge.
--Service will start after cheque clearance only.

What will be provided?
-Calls will be given (long or short) based on my own trading system breakouts, volume and open interest addition.(new calls) .
- All calls will be followed fully till they are closed.(open calls)
-When to book profit will be given.
-All calls will have stop loss which will work on closing basis.

-daily two mails will be send
-one before market opens containing open calls, new calls and options,
-second mail will be send after market closes containing trading diary for trades follow up using opening range breakout.

Who should subscribe?
-Only positional players and short term traders should subscribe.
-Those who can close there position when stop loss hits.
-Those who trade in market to get reasonable returns.

Who should not subscribe?
-Emotional traders.
-Those who give more importance to target in a call then to stop loss.
-Those who want to make quick money from market.

Those who are interested can mail me on drjcshah123@yahoo.com

My bank account details as follows.
Name-Jignesh C. Shah
Ac. No. 10169191511
Bank-state bank of india.
Branch-navavadaj, ahmedabad.

Please send me your details as follows.
Name-
E-mail-
Mobile no.-
payment details--cash or cheque
cheque no.--
bank name--
branch--
city--

Please note that I will be providing e-mail services only.
Please mail me when you deposit the cheque or cash in the account.



My address-
Dr.Jignesh C. Shah
JIGISHA NURSING HOME,
Sumangalam complex,
Above S.B.I., Vyaswadi Road,
Navavadaj,
Ahmedabad-380013.

''JOIN US IF YOU WANT TO Develop MECHANICAL TRADING IN YOU.''

-dr.jignesh shah

cues for march 6

---Nifty is trading in a rectangle as seen above in closing levels chart.
---2524-2553(previous closing bottoms) will provide some support here.

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 20 points thus cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 16 lacs suggests short addition.
--Nifty call option added 36 lacs and put option added 8 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.19.
--2500 put had open interest of 93 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility decreased by 100 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 41.56, decreased by 2% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading weak.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2511. (down 45)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2669. (Initiated at 2674).

journey of one year

Today our blog completes one year.
On sixth march,2008 when I started this blog, I never anticipated this much hudge response what I got.................
I thanks all the visitors of this blog from bottom of my heart.
I thanks http://www.vfmdirect.com/ site and it's forum members for changing my thoughts on how to see the markets.
I also thank to all who encouraged me by putting comments or sending mails. Because of that encouragement I tried to put posts regularly on the blog inspite of my over busy medical profession.(sometimes I posted even at 3am also).
today I repeat first post of this blog.........
http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2008/03/nifty-is-also-my-patient.html
Thursday, March 6, 2008
nifty is also my patient
Everybody must be wondering why a doctor is doing so much of analysis of nifty.
I study nifty in so much detail is that I consider it as an alternate to investment.That's why nifty is also a patient for me.
As a doctor we have practice of going for lot many reports before coming for a final diagnosis and line of treatment, same way i study all the details of nifty before coming for final conclusion.
So I feel that one should study all data regarding nifty before taking a call like technical analysis, derivative data, fii & mut fund data for taking call on nifty.
Nifty is a unique patient also as it comes with everyday with new symptoms and we get everyday new diagnosis.I follow the policy that only when I am confirm of a dignosis then & then I take the case of nifty otherwise I refer it to others to treat.......
so in a nutshell I feel that dignosis of trend is important in taking care of nifty!!!!
comments are welcome...
Regards-
dr.j.c.shah
(incidentally my hospital 'jigisha nursing home' was started on 7th march,1997)

cues for march 5

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 15 points thus cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 14 lacs suggests short covering.
--Nifty call option added 26 lacs and put option added 32 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.27.
--2500 put had open interest of 92 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility decreased by 200 basis points suggests stability.
--India VIX closed at 42.77, decreased by 4% suggests stability.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading strong.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2660. (up 25)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2703. (Initiated at 2674).

CUES FOR 4TH MARCH

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount decreased to 31 points thus cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 20 lacs suggests long addition.
--Nifty call option added 36 lacs and put option added 18 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.28.
--2500 put had open interest of 88 lacs, so 2500 will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility remains flat suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 44.44, increased by 2% suggests instability.
--US markets closed flat.
--Asian markets trading weak.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2555. (Down 31)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2747. (Initiated at 2674).

CUES FOR MARCH 3

CUES-

--Nifty March future discount increased to 35 points thus cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 16 lacs suggests short addition.
--Nifty call option added 29 lacs and put option added 26 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio decreased to 1.36.
--2500 put had open interest of 77 lacs, so it will be imp level to watch for.
--implied volatility increased by 200 basis points suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 43.36, increased by 6% suggests instability.
--US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading weak.
--Sgx nifty trading at 2595. (Down 34)

--Positional strategy for nifty—Hold short with closing stoploss of 2783. (Initiated at 2674).