Friday, September 12, 2008

Nifty Analysis For Sept 15


***Technicals
Nifty is in 4200-4550 range since many days and 4200 tested second time. So chances of 4200 support get violated are very high now.
Below 4200 (14000 in sensex) downtrend will begin with targets of 4110,3960, 3800.
If 4200 held intact then nifty can bounce back up to 4450.
***Derivatives (September 12)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 17 points and around 13 lakh shares were added in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating new long at lower levels.
-Nifty call option added 26 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option shed 1 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 0.94.
-Implied volatility has increased marginally, which indicates high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 11)
~FIIs net in Index fut. -1233 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. –191 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market -1410 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market -51 cr
***total fund flow -2885 cr today & nifty was down by 110 points.
*** So far net fund flow of -6451 cr in September series. (Nifty is up in September series). This suggests that upside will be limited only.

***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)
happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah