Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Nifty Analysis For September 19


***Technicals
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
3800 target also achieved today which I felt that would be difficult to achieve.
Another long lower shadow formed today which is bullish.
Double bottom formed at 3800 is also bullish.
Upside target of corrective upmove will be 4130, 4220.
Below 3800 downtrend will resume again.

***Derivatives (September 18)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 6 points and around 6 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.

-Nifty call option shed 3 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.83 from 0.82.

-Implied volatility has increased by 400-450 basis points(upto 45-53%%), which indicates high volatility in the coming days.

***Fund flow (September 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 268 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 196 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1333 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 410 cr
***total fund flow – 459 cr today & nifty was down by 67 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 10087cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)

happy trading and investing.
-dr.jignesh shah