nifty in rectangle

----nifty is trading in a rectangle after gap up opening.
--do not forgot to trade the breakout.

CUES FOR JULY 31

********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--

---Ideal Strategy- HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below-4475.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html

********CUES--

--Nifty August future premium decreased to 1.5 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 87 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.30 cr)
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.95.
--4500 puts had open interest of 21 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 29 lacs, so 4500 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 37.59, increased by 0.7% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 29

********POSITIONAL STRATEGY--
---Ideal Strategy- HOLD LONG. (Strategy was initiated when Nifty closed at 4233)

---Do not hold long if closes below-4521.
--- Do not hold short if closes above -4592.

--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html

********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium decreased to 2 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 15 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 3.0cr)
--Nifty calls added 6 lacs and puts added 8 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.31.
--4400 puts had open interest of 44 lacs and 4600 calls had open interest of 38 lacs, so 4400 and 4600 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.07, decreased by 3% suggests stability.

CUES FOR JULY 27

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG. (Initiated at 4233 closing)
---Do not hold long if closes below—4430.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4556.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html



********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium decreased to 7 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 9 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.81cr)
--Nifty calls added 8 lacs and puts added 17 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.30.
--4400 puts had open interest of 43 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 38 lacs, so 4400 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.47, increased by 7% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 23

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4398.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4531.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html



********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium increased to 6 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 0.3 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.42cr)
--Nifty calls added 8 lacs and puts added 4 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.22.
--4300 puts had open interest of 52 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 37 lacs, so 4300 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 37.14, increased by 2% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 22

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4348.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4475.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html



********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium decreased to 4 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 3 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.42cr)
--Nifty calls added 6 lacs and puts added 10 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.23.
--4300 puts had open interest of 50 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 38 lacs, so 4300 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.59, decreased by 1% suggests stability.

CUES FOR JULY 21

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4271.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4402.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html


********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium increased to 8 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 0.3 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.39cr)
--Nifty calls shed 7 lacs and puts added 24 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.23.
--4300 puts had open interest of 46 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 35 lacs, so 4300 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.97, increased by 3% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 20

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4185.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4315.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html

********CUES--

--Nifty July future discount converted into premium of 6 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 2 lacs suggests long addtion. (Total OI now at 2.40cr)
--Nifty calls shed 12 lacs and puts added 47 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.16.
--4300 puts had open interest of 47 lacs and 4700 calls had open interest of 37 lacs, so 4300 and 4700 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 35.89, decreased by 4% suggests stability.

FUND FLOW UPDATE

--remember that the june series expiry was at 4242.
--data for july 16 are provisional.
--all other data from sebi website.

CUES FOR JULY 17

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4099.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4228.
--- Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html

********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium converted into discount of 6 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 0.1 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.38cr)
--Nifty calls added 0.25 lacs and puts added 19 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 1.03.
--4000 puts had open interest of 72 lacs and 4300 calls had open interest of 43 lacs, so 4000 and 4300 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 37.59, increased by 4% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 16

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— INITIATE LONG.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4004.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4127.
---Visit the page to understand how to implement positional strategy during trading hours……….. http://niftydoctor.blogspot.com/2009/04/opening-range-breakout.html

********CUES--

--Nifty July future premium increased to 3 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 1 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI now at 2.38cr)
--Nifty calls shed 3 lacs and puts added 50 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.99.
--4000 puts had open interest of 67 lacs and 4300 calls had open interest of 40 lacs, so 4000 and 4300 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.15, increased by 3% suggests instability.

CLARIFICATION

I received a comment like this from 'veer'
--Dear Doctor,The positional strategy for nifty as per your three ema system is long whereas here you are saying neutral. Could you pls explain for education purpose.
Regards,Veer

my clarification is as follows---
***mechanical trading sytem****
--positional stategy which we discussed here is based on my old mechanical trading sytem which includes 3dSMA, 8dSMA, 34dSMA and 3 dayhigh and 3 day low averages.
--this system is for positional traders and works on closing basis.
--it is usefull for part-time traders and short term investors with positional traders.
****real time trading sytem****
---the new trading system of our new blog is based on three averages.
---it is for real time trading and usefull only to full-time traders.
---here stoploss works on real time basis.

CUES FOR JULY 15

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— NEUTRAL.
---Do not hold long if closes below—3957.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4087.

CUES FOR JULY 14

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD SHORT.
---Do not hold long if closes below—3978.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4083.

********CUES--

--Nifty July future discount decreased to 8 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 2 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.35cr)
--Nifty calls added 8 lacs and puts shed 3 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.81.
--3800 puts had open interest of 48 lacs and 4100 calls had open interest of 28 lacs, so 3800 and 4100 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.58 increased by 2% suggests instability.

CUES FOR JULY 13

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD SHORT.
---Do not hold long if closes below—4026.
--- Do not hold short if closes above —4149.

*********CUES-

--Nifty July future discount increased to 10 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 10 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.37cr)
--Nifty calls added 8 lacs and puts added 4 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.83.
--3800 puts had open interest of 45 lacs and 4100 calls had open interest of 25 lacs, so 3800 and 4100 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 35.83, decreased by 2% suggests stability.

CUES FOR JULY 10

CUES-

--Nifty July future discount decreased to 7 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 7 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.27cr)
--Nifty calls added 29 lacs and puts added 20 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.83.
--4000 puts had open interest of 47 lacs and 4300 calls had open interest of 40 lacs, so 4000 and 4300 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.64, decreased by 2% suggests stability.
********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD SHORT.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4085.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4184.

breakdown???????

CUES FOR JULY 8

*****NIFTY CHART******

(Disclaimer---our clients are having short open position in nifty and dlf)

CUES-

--Nifty July future discount decreased to 11 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 4 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.29cr)
--Nifty calls added 1.3 lacs and puts added 1.5 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.86.
--3800 puts had open interest of 39 lacs and 4300 calls had open interest of 38 lacs, so 3800 and 4300 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 36.17, decreased by 9% suggests stability.

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD SHORT.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4196.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4382.

CUES FOR JULY 7

CUES-

--Nifty July future premium converted in to discount of 12 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 6 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.33cr)
--Nifty calls added 62 lacs and puts added 1.5 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.86.
--3800 puts had open interest of 38 lacs and 4300 calls had open interest of 35 lacs, so 3800 and 4300 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 39.89, decreased by 13% suggests stability.

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— INITIATE SHORT.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4240. (Stopped out)
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4433.

CUES FOR JULY 6

********weekly chart********

********daily chart*********
CUES-

--Nifty July future discount converted into premium 0.4 points so cost of carry increased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 2 lacs suggests short covering. (Total OI now at 2.26cr)
--Nifty calls added 42 lacs and puts added 63 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.99.
--4200 puts had open interest of 38 lacs and 4500 calls had open interest of 24 lacs, so 4200 and 4500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 45.86, increased by 4.5% suggests instability.
-- US markets closed.

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4279.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4393.(Stopped out)

CUES FOR JULY 3

CUES-

--Nifty July future discount increased 3 point so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 0.2 lac suggests long unwinding. (Total OI now at 2.28cr)
--4200 puts had open interest of 30 lacs and 4500 calls had open interest of 22 lacs, so 4200 and 4500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 43.88, increased by 1.6% suggests instability.
-- US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading negative.
--Sgx nifty trading at 4291. (Down 42)

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4269
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4391.

CUES FOR JULY 2

CUES-

--Nifty July future discount increased 2.5 point so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 4 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.28cr)
--Nifty calls added 15 lacs and puts added 18 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.92.
--4200 puts had open interest of 26 lacs and 4500 calls had open interest of 20 lacs, so 4200 and 4500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 43.15, increased by 1.5% suggests instability.
-- US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 4341. (Up 2)

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4289
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4410.

cues for july 1

CUES-

--Nifty July future discount increased 1.5 point so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest increased by 8 lacs suggests short addition. (Total OI now at 2.24cr)
--Nifty calls added 20 lacs and puts added 18 lacs in open interest.
--Nifty open interest put-call ratio is at 0.91.
--4200 puts had open interest of 26 lacs and 4500 calls had open interest of 19 lacs, so 4200 and 4500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 42.54, increased by 6% suggests instability.
-- US markets closed in red.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 4319. (Up 17)

********Positional strategy for nifty—
---IDEAL STRATEGY— HOLD LONG.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR LONG—4287.
---CLOSING STOPLOSS FOR SHORT—4417.